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Watches of Switzerland (LSE:WOSG) shares are down 27% over one month, however solely 8% over the previous 12 months. As such, £10,000 invested 12 months in the past would now be price £9,200. That’s clearly not a superb return, however contemplating the current volatility, I wouldn’t be too disheartened. Generally, it’s all relative.
Tariffs, tariffs, tariffs
I really feel like a damaged document, however Trump’s tariffs are an enormous difficulty for firms around the globe. Watches of Switzerland, with operations spanning the UK, US, and components of Europe, isn’t any exception. The corporate depends on importing luxurious watches from Switzerland and different European nations, making it susceptible to modifications in commerce agreements or tariff regimes.
So, let’s take a more in-depth take a look at the tariff difficulty. The US has imposed a 31% tariff on Swiss imports, focusing on one of the corporate’s most crucial provide chains. The US isn’t just a main marketplace for Swiss watches — it’s the largest export vacation spot for Swiss timepieces, accounting for 16.8% of Swiss watch exports in 2024 (round CHF4.4bn).
For a retailer like Watches of Switzerland, which specialises in high-end Swiss manufacturers such as Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Omega, this tariff represents a direct hit to its core operations.
In accordance with analysis I’ve come throughout, the tariffs can be utilized to the import worth of the products. Based mostly on a number of calculations, this implies the price of a Rolex Land-Dweller from $16,100 to about $17,900. It’s not a large enhance, however it actually can be noticeable.
Whereas high-net-worth people should still buy luxurious watches regardless of worth will increase, mid-tier patrons usually tend to balk at paying 15%-30% extra. This might result in a slowdown in gross sales for entry-level luxurious manufacturers like Longines or Tissot.
Cross-border arbitrage
Constructing on the above, I recommend that the upper finish of Watches of Switzerland’s vary is pretty worth inelastic. In different phrases, if you wish to spend £12,000 on a Rolex, you in all probability will whatever the tariffs. I’ve been questioning if the tariffs will encourage cross-border arbitrage — travelling overseas to benefit from decrease costs — with US patrons procuring abroad. Solely time will inform.
Valuation improves on paper
Watches of Switzerland’s ahead valuation displays a blended outlook. The corporate’s ahead price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is estimated at 9.2 occasions, considerably decrease than historic averages, indicating market skepticism about its progress potential. This determine is anticipated to fall to 7.2 occasions by 2027.
Nevertheless, the difficulty is that these figures are based mostly on earnings projections made earlier than Trump’s tariffs. It’s virtually sure now that we’ll see analysts revise their projections downwards. I’d additionally add to this that the corporate has a modest internet debt place of £120m. This clearly must be taken under consideration when contemplating the P/E.
Personally, I’m going to maintain my powder dry on this one. The inventory could possibly be enticing, however there’s a lot uncertainty. It’ll actually pay to maintain my eye on the tariff information. Maybe if the Swiss can negotiate a ‘higher deal’, the fallout could also be extra controllable.
