International brokerage agency UBS has maintained its optimistic outlook on the Indian inventory market, setting a 12-month goal of 26,000 for the Nifty 50—indicating a possible upside of almost 6 % from its present degree of 24,414.4. Over the previous yr, the index has posted a achieve of ~9.5 %, whereas in 2025 up to now, it has delivered a return of two.83 %. Nonetheless, UBS additionally cautioned that within the occasion of a worldwide financial slowdown, the Nifty 50 might face a draw back threat of as much as 6 %.
Causes for inventory market optimism
The brokerage anticipates a restoration in consumption throughout FY26 and FY27, following subdued traits in shopper spending and capital expenditure all through FY25. A drop in crude oil costs is anticipated to assist GDP growth and contribute to easing inflationary pressures.
Moreover, UBS believes India is relatively higher positioned than different Asian economies to resist potential challenges from U.S. tariffs and a broader international financial slowdown. The agency additionally considers present market valuations to be truthful, with the Nifty’s one-year ahead price-to-earnings ratio aligning with its 7–8-year historic common.
Nonetheless, UBS warns that if international development weakens, the Nifty 50 might decline by as a lot as 6 %, as consensus earnings projections for FY26—presently estimated at 13 %—could fall to round 8 %. Roughly 20 % of the Nifty’s earnings are tied to international financial situations.
In mild of those dangers, UBS has trimmed its GDP development forecast for India by 30 foundation factors to six % for FY26 and by 20 bps to six.4 % for FY27, whereas noting that decrease crude costs and consumption-driven stimulus might assist offset among the draw back pressures.
The brokerage maintains a optimistic outlook on consumption-driven sectors, together with retail, staples, two-wheelers, and journey, together with financials, actual property, cement, and hospitals.
In distinction, UBS stays cautious on industrials and infrastructure, citing restricted room for presidency capex development—anticipated to be within the mid-to-high single digits CAGR between FY25–27—as a consequence of fiscal stress from the upcoming eighth pay fee and continued social welfare spending. It noticed that the collective fiscal deficit of state governments is nearing 3 %, with continued social welfare expenditures additional limiting capex capability.
Moreover, personal capex could also be affected as a consequence of uncertainty round international development. UBS’s Industrials group holds a optimistic view on defence and the ability gear worth chain. Nonetheless, it stays cautious on the IT sector as a consequence of earnings dangers tied to vital US publicity and international slowdown considerations, although it believes valuation draw back is restricted. UBS can also be cautious of generic pharma exporters, anticipating earnings downgrades starting within the second half of FY26.
Nifty 50: Present Help and Resistance Ranges
The Nifty 50 index is presently buying and selling round 24,414.4. The rapid assist ranges are seen within the vary of 24,200 to 24,230, with a broader assist zone between 24,000 and 23,900. The 200-day Easy Transferring Common (SMA), presently close to 23,649, additionally supplies a key assist base which will assist cushion any potential declines.
On the upper aspect, resistance is positioned close to 24,600, performing as a important breakout level. A transfer above this degree might open the trail towards the following resistance zone between 24,700 and 24,850. Sustaining above these ranges could point out continued upward momentum, whereas a fall beneath 23,800 might sign a shift towards a extra cautious market outlook.
Written by Shivani Singh
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