The nation’s largest passenger automobile maker had reported a powerful March quarter with a number of one-off bills, however these reversals in Q1 is probably not sufficient to offset the influence of decrease gross sales volumes and margin compression this time.
Weak quantity present, export combine rise
Brokerages famous that volumes grew simply 1% YoY in the course of the quarter, with complete dispatches standing at round 528,000 models. Whereas export contribution rose to about 18% from 13.5% final 12 months, the share of higher-margin UVs dipped marginally to 30.7% from 31.3%, in line with Motilal Oswal.Phillip Capital and YES Securities additionally flagged the sequential decline in volumes—down over 12% from This fall FY25—as a key drag. Home volumes fell 17% quarter-on-quarter, although exports supplied some cushion, rising 14% throughout the identical interval.
Margins beneath strain regardless of rollback of one-offs
Most brokerages count on EBITDA margins to stay flat or contract year-on-year. Nuvama anticipates a decline in gross margin, leading to EBITDA margin compression. Motilal Oswal pegs the EBITDA margin at 10.5%, down 220 foundation factors YoY, with a secure QoQ efficiency.Phillip Capital attributes the regular margin to a rollback of This fall one-offs like CSR and promoting spends, partially balancing the unfavorable influence of decrease scale, full-quarter Kharkhoda plant prices, and a better share of low-margin exports.YES Securities estimates the EBITDA margin at 10.9%, down about 170 foundation factors YoY, however barely higher sequentially.
Bottomline to replicate operational weak spot
On the web revenue entrance, Motilal Oswal expects a steep 19% YoY fall in PAT, whereas YES Securities forecasts a 9.5% drop. The consensus common factors to a 16% decline in Q1 earnings on a YoY foundation.
Traders shall be watching carefully for administration commentary on demand traits, the agricultural restoration narrative, and timelines for brand spanking new mannequin launches within the the rest of the fiscal.
With value pressures easing and one-offs behind, the upcoming quarters may even see some revival—however Q1 is predicted to replicate a cooling-off interval after a powerful FY25 end.
(Disclaimer: Suggestions, ideas, views and opinions given by the consultants are their very own. These don’t symbolize the views of the Financial Occasions)
