The week started on a sturdy notice, pushed by vital weekend developments on the geopolitical entrance. The cessation of hostilities between India and Pakistan, following the profitable execution of Operation Sindoor by the Indian armed forces, injected a wave of optimism into investor sentiment, propelling markets increased.
With this, analyst Rahul Ghose, Founder & CEO, Octanom Tech & Hedged.in, interacted with ET Markets relating to the outlook on Nifty and Financial institution Nifty. Following are the edited excerpts from his chat:
So, how is the market temper like? The US-China commerce deal has been properly celebrated this week. What are you studying out there proper now?
The market sentiment has turned decisively optimistic this week, with the formal decision of the US-China commerce deal performing as a powerful tailwind. This deal not solely reduces geopolitical overhang but in addition improves the worldwide commerce outlook, which is essential for export-driven sectors. Domestically, sturdy macro stability—with April CPI easing to 4.4% and core inflation firmly anchored—has given the RBI sufficient headroom to keep up a pro-growth stance. FIIs, which had been web sellers in Q1 2025, have began returning with over Rs 8,000 crore pumped on this week alone, exhibiting renewed confidence.Nevertheless, one should additionally notice that this rally is sentiment-driven to a big extent and is working forward of fundamentals in sure pockets. That requires selectivity and a valuation-conscious strategy, particularly as earnings season has been blended.
Nifty has proven a major surge now. Are we aiming for additional highs? Or can we anticipate some consolidation? And any key ranges you’d like to say?
Sure, we will anticipate additional highs within the short-medium time period. The market’s momentum is robust & many of the essential resistance zones like 24,300/24,800 have been convincingly damaged. The Nifty RSI ranges on day by day, weekly, in addition to month-to-month time frames are hovering round 64-65 ranges, which exhibits bullishness & additionally markets are removed from being overbought. The rally nonetheless has legs & we might solely anticipate this rally to pause solely across the 25,600-25,740 band, adopted by 26,150-26,200. That is previous to the place markets began their descent.
How does the Financial institution Nifty presently look? Any ranges to be careful for there?
Financial institution Nifty additionally appears to be like bullish. Presently, the index is consolidating in a small symmetrical triangle on the day by day chart, exhibiting sideways motion, nonetheless, one can anticipate a breakout & look to create recent lengthy positions on closing above 56,100 for increased targets. On the draw back, 54,000 is more likely to act as a powerful assist.
Within the present scenario, what’s your name with respect to buying and selling? Is buying and selling the index higher or shares?
It is a time when selective inventory buying and selling can outperform index buying and selling. Whereas the indices are transferring up, the reward-to-risk ratio in them isn’t very excessive. The rally since Could ninth has been roughly a vertical rally, which may result in broad cease losses. Particular person shares, alternatively, can provide a greater reward to danger ratio as lots of them can be found round their weekly & month-to-month assist ranges, promising higher RR.
What’s your tackle defence shares? Is there extra warmth left?
Defence shares have seen a pointy surge in the previous few weeks, triggered not simply by sturdy fundamentals but in addition attributable to heightened geopolitical tensions. The latest India-Pakistan border skirmish, although managed shortly diplomatically, has introduced the highlight again on nationwide safety. This led to a powerful rally in key defence counters—HAL jumped over 12%, BEL by 9%, and Cochin Shipyard surged practically 15% in simply 4 periods submit the incident, pushed by expectations of quicker procurement and a lift in indigenous manufacturing.
Past the short-term set off, the structural story stays compelling. The federal government continues to push for Atmanirbharta in defence, with over Rs 1.6 lakh crore price of tasks already moved to the home procurement checklist. Furthermore, the latest DAC (Defence Acquisition Council) clearance of offers price Rs 45,000 crore is an extra sign of momentum.
Technically, many of those shares are overbought within the brief time period, however there is no signal of a reversal but. Traders ought to search for minor dips or consolidations to build up basically sturdy names. HAL, BEL, and Mazagon Dock proceed to point out sturdy order books and execution functionality.
Verdict: Whereas a few of the latest rally is event-driven, the structural story has legs. There may be nonetheless steam left for medium- to long-term buyers, particularly if the federal government fast-tracks defence manufacturing and exports in FY26.
Let’s have a dialogue on the steel sector. Please throw some gentle for us on the sector.
The steel sector has seen renewed curiosity submit the US-China commerce truce and China’s announcement of a recent infrastructure stimulus price $100 billion. Costs of base metals like copper and aluminium are firming up globally.
Home metal majors like Tata Metal and JSW Metal are well-positioned given their deleverage stability sheets. Hindalco, too, advantages from increased aluminium costs and Novelis’ optimistic steering. Nevertheless, with valuations stretched, a staggered strategy is suggested. Look ahead to value affirmation in world LME charts and Chinese language information for additional cues.
Let’s talk about the technical outlook on the shares that posted their earnings on Friday: Hyundai, BHEL, and Delhivery.
Hyundai Motors reported a 3.7% year-on-year (YoY) decline in consolidated web revenue at Rs 1,614 crore in Q4FY25 as towards Rs 1,677 crore reported within the year-ago interval. The corporate’s income from operations within the March-ended quarter stood at Rs 17,940 crore, which was up 1.5% versus Rs 17,671 crore within the corresponding quarter of the final monetary 12 months.
Technically, Hyundai Motors is trying sturdy. Though the present value is buying and selling nearer to resistance ranges of Rs 1,930, the underlying sturdy momentum suggests the extent is more likely to be taken out. Merchants can look to enter on a break above Rs 1,930 ranges.
BHEL reported a consolidated web revenue of Rs 504.45 crore in This autumn FY25, marking a 3% year-on-year enhance. The corporate’s income rose by 9% to Rs 8,993 crore, pushed by a major surge in its trade section income, which elevated to Rs 2,800.96 crore. The board has really useful a ultimate dividend of Rs 0.50 per share for FY25.
From a technical standpoint, BHEL’s inventory has been consolidating after a latest rally. Key assist is noticed at Rs 220, with resistance at Rs 275-280 ranges. A breakout above Rs 280 with sturdy quantity may sign additional upside potential. Traders ought to monitor order inflows and execution timelines, as these shall be essential for sustained progress.
Delhivery achieved a major turnaround in This autumn FY25, posting a consolidated web revenue of Rs 72.6 crore, in comparison with a lack of Rs 68.5 crore in the identical quarter final 12 months. Income from operations elevated by 5.6% year-on-year to Rs 2,192 crore. The corporate additionally reported its first full-year web revenue of Rs 162 crore for FY25, pushed by progress in its part-truckload (PTL) enterprise and operational efficiencies.
Technically, Delhivery’s inventory has proven energy, buying and selling above its key transferring averages. Help is seen at Rs 300, with resistance at Rs 350. A sustained transfer above Rs 350 may result in additional beneficial properties. The inventory can transfer to Rs 390-400 ranges shortly. Traders ought to look ahead to developments associated to the corporate’s proposed acquisition of Ecom Categorical, as profitable integration may improve Delhivery’s market place
Hero Motocorp reported its earnings earlier this week and the inventory has proven a pleasant rally. Any positions really useful?
Hero’s earnings stunned positively on margins and rural gross sales pickup. Two-wheeler demand is bettering with softening gasoline costs and authorities rural spending. Technically, Rs 4,530 is a breakout stage. So long as it holds above Rs 4,530, the uptrend stays intact. Merchants can contemplate driving the development with potential targets of Rs 5,400-5,600.
Are you able to throw some gentle on IndusInd Financial institution inventory from a technical perspective after the Rs 595 crore discrepancy that has been recognized?
The discrepancy, although beneath investigation, raises governance considerations. The financial institution has clarified that buyer funds had been unaffected, however such occasions can dent investor confidence within the brief time period. The inventory could stay beneath stress, and till there’s readability from the forensic audit, it’s higher to keep away from recent longs. Rs 630-600 is the instant assist; a breach may see it going additional down.
Any sectors to be careful for?
Banking sector, Metallic sector & Monetary providers are trying optimistic on value charts & can look to outperform.
Any shares in these sectors?
In BankNifty, ICICI & HDFC Financial institution, in monetary providers HDFC Life & Chola financials, & in metals heavyweights like Jindal Metal, JSW Metal & Tata Metal might be checked out on pullback
(Disclaimer: Suggestions, ideas, views and opinions given by the consultants are their very own. These don’t symbolize the views of The Financial Instances)
