(The opinions expressed listed here are these of the writer, a market analyst for Reuters.)
NAPERVILLE, Illinois, Might 11 (Reuters) – On the subject of Chicago corn futures, speculators usually maintain on to closely bullish corn bets for an prolonged interval. Ditching them after only a few months is uncommon.
However traders may be bearish heading into Monday’s reviews from the U.S. Division of Agriculture after world commerce uncertainties spurred atypical bouts of corn promoting earlier this 12 months.
Within the week ended Might 6, cash managers slashed their web lengthy in CBOT corn futures and choices to 13,893 contracts from 71,329 per week earlier. That’s their least bullish corn view since they first established the web lengthy six months in the past, and it’s notably off the 12 months’s excessive of greater than 360,000 contracts.
Most-active CBOT corn futures fell 3.1% in that interval earlier than declining one other 1.3% between Wednesday and Friday.
Each day commerce estimates counsel speculators are web brief corn heading into this week.
On common, analysts count on USDA on Monday to venture 2025-26 U.S. corn ending shares close to 2 billion bushels, up 40% on the 12 months due to an enormous acreage.
Cash managers trimmed their web brief in CBOT wheat futures and choices within the week ended Might 6, however their views stay strongly bearish for any time of 12 months at 113,734 contracts.
Russian wheat has dominated the export market, preserving world costs in test. Most-active CBOT wheat on Friday notched its lowest settle since August 2020.
High exporter Russia and neighbor Ukraine might not harvest a stellar crop this 12 months, which may strain world wheat provides into 2025-26. However China’s common retreat as a worldwide grain importer has alleviated a number of the provide issues.
Nevertheless, excessive warmth in China’s wheat belt might have lately spawned some purchases out of Australia and Canada.
Analysts see 2025-26 world wheat shares largely unchanged from 2024-25.
Cash managers final week additional prolonged what had been a report web brief in Kansas Metropolis wheat futures and choices. Additionally they proceed carrying very bearish views in Minneapolis wheat.
Within the week ended Might 6, cash managers reduce their web lengthy in CBOT soybean futures and choices to 21,870 contracts from 38,202 within the prior week. July futures rose 1% over the past three periods, so funds would possibly stay bullish heading into the week.
Analysts count on 2025-26 U.S. soybean provides to be just like 2024-25. However world shares are anticipated to rise, particularly with Brazil probably increasing planted space for a nineteenth consecutive 12 months.
Chinese language demand will proceed to be a wildcard heading into 2026, notably amid the highest soybean importer’s slowing financial development. Stagnant Chinese language soy utilization plus an enormous Brazilian crop may make a U.S.-China commerce conflict extra tolerable for Chinese language bean importers.
Cash managers pushed their web brief in CBOT soybean meal futures and choices to a different all-time excessive by way of Might 6. That report place of 103,457 contracts resulted regardless of a handful of recent gross longs getting into the market.
Funds reduce their web lengthy in CBOT soybean oil futures and choices by way of Might 6 to 56,738 contracts from 63,387 per week earlier. That snapped a five-week streak of web shopping for, which was supported by robust export demand for U.S. soyoil.
Again in February, USDA’s preliminary 2025-26 projections prompt that U.S. soybean meal exports would keep on their report tempo as processing capability continues to broaden. Soybean oil exports had been additionally anticipated to stay equally robust as within the present 12 months.
Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her personal.
