After a powerful 15.6% CAGR in FY22–24, system mortgage development eased to 9.8% YoY in July 2025, weighed down by tighter liquidity, regulatory restrictions on unsecured lending, and subdued company borrowing.
Retail lending—the important thing development driver for personal banks—has slowed notably throughout secured and unsecured segments, with mortgage development slipping to 9% and bank card loans to eight.5% YoY, from double-digit development a yr in the past.
Wholesale credit score demand stays weak, additional dampening momentum. Nonetheless, the sector is predicted to see a cyclical rebound in 2HFY26, supported by festive demand, higher liquidity, and decrease rates of interest.
Whereas stress in unsecured retail loans stays excessive, delinquency ranges have stabilised. Threat-based pricing and easing credit score prices ought to support restoration in unsecured and microfinance lending, each of which decelerated sharply in FY25.
On the funding aspect, margins stay beneath strain as deposit prices modify, although a gradual enchancment is more likely to carry profitability from 2HFY26.PSBs, lengthy held again by asset high quality points and gradual modernisation, posted 12% mortgage development in FY25—outpacing personal banks for the primary time in 15 years.Stronger capital positions, improved profitability, and more healthy stability sheets drove this turnaround, lifting their market share by ~40bps—the primary such acquire in over a decade. Nonetheless, slower department enlargement, lagging expertise upgrades, and staffing constraints might cap the tempo of development.
System credit score development is projected at 11–12.5% over FY26–27, with PSBs more likely to submit regular however reasonable 10–13% CAGR via FY28. Non-public banks are anticipated to develop barely quicker however will deal with elevated credit-deposit ratios.
Sector earnings ought to strengthen meaningfully by FY27, signalling the top of the present slowdown.
General, FY26 begins with a extra balanced aggressive panorama—PSBs regaining floor and personal banks fine-tuning methods amid margin pressures.
Over the medium time period, credit score demand restoration, asset high quality normalisation, and gradual margin enchancment will anchor development.
HDFC Financial institution: Purchase| Goal Rs 2300| LTP Rs 1995| Upside 15%
HDFC Financial institution is well-positioned to ship a powerful earnings rebound, supported by bettering mortgage development throughout Industrial & Rural Banking (CRB), SME, and retail segments.
With normalization of the CD ratio and a granular legal responsibility profile, the financial institution is poised to speed up credit score development—guided to be in keeping with the system in FY26 and forward in FY27.
Sturdy asset high quality (GNPA/NNPA at 1.4%/0.5% in 1QFY26) and provisioning buffers (INR366b) present consolation, whereas margin restoration is predicted as high-cost borrowings are changed by deposits. We estimate HDFCB to ship FY27E RoA/RoE of 1.9%/14.9%.
ICICI Financial institution: Purchase| Goal Rs 1670| LTP Rs 1440| Upside 16%
ICICI Financial institution posted 15.5% YoY PAT development in 1QFY26, aided by steady NIMs at 4.34%, robust treasury beneficial properties (₹12.4b), & managed opex. This displays its constant earnings supply regardless of sector-wide NIM strain and rising credit score prices.
Advances grew 11.5% YoY and 1.7% QoQ, pushed by robust momentum in Enterprise Banking (+29.7% YoY, +3.7% QoQ), which now types 20% of the guide.
Deposits grew 12.8% YoY, whereas CASA combine stood at 41.2%. Common CASA ratio improved 30bp QoQ to 38.7%. ICICI’s steady GNPA/NNPA at 1.67%/0.41%, ₹131b contingency buffer, & 16.3% CET-1 ratio spotlight its sturdy stability sheet.
Continued tech investments and assured Private Mortgage/Credit score Card outlook place the financial institution for FY27E RoA/RoE of two.3%/17.3%.
(The creator is Head – Analysis, Wealth Administration, Motilal Oswal Monetary Providers Ltd.)
(Disclaimer: Suggestions, solutions, views, and opinions given by consultants are their very own. These don’t signify the views of the Financial Occasions)
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