Seen as a restoration quarter after losses within the derivatives phase within the earlier quarter, the Avenue can be specializing in asset high quality tendencies, credit score prices, and commentary on deposit mobilisation and succession planning put up the This autumn shock.
1. PAT
Internet revenue is projected to fall 65% to 91% YoY, reflecting the aftermath of the This autumn loss and continued provisioning burden.
The lender had reported a consolidated internet lack of Rs 2,329 crore in its Q4FY25.
- Emkay: Rs 194 crore, down 91% YoY)
- Nomura: Rs 350 crore, down 85% YoY
- Nuvama: Rs 740 crore, down 65% YoY
- Kotak Equities: Rs 534 crore, down 75% YoY
2. NII / NIM:
Internet curiosity revenue (NII) is estimated to say no 22–25% YoY, however NIMs might rebound QoQ after This autumn’s by-product loss impression.
- Emkay: 4,080 crore, down 24.6% YoY and down 33.8% QoQ | NIM: 3.1%, down 118 bps YoY and up 82 bps QoQ
- Nomura: Rs 4,150, down 23% YoY and up 36% QoQ | NIM: 3.2%, down 103 bps YoY and up 97 bps QoQ
- Nuvama: Rs 4,200 crore, down 22% YoY and down 38% QoQ | NIM: 3.40% down 85 bps YoY and up 115 bps QoQ
- Kotak: Rs 4,227 crore, down 22% YoY and up 39% QoQ | NIM: 3.1, down 106 bps YoY and 87 bps QoQ
3. Pre-Provision Working Revenue (PPoP):
Working profitability is predicted to be weak, reflecting muted core revenue and value pressures.
- Nomura: Rs 2,260 crore, down 23% YoY and 561% QoQ
- Nuvama: Rs 2,480 crore, down 36.8% YoY and down 625% QoQ
- Kotak: Rs 2,394 crore down 39% YoY
4. Loans & deposits:
Nomura expects a 4% YoY and three% QoQ decline in Q1 loans whereas pegging a flat YoY development in deposits at Rs 3,97,200 crore. It could fall 3% QoQ.
In the meantime, Nuvama sees loans at Rs 3,34,500 crore, down 3.9% YoY and down 3.1% QoQ. As for the deposits, a 0.3% YoY and three.3% QoQ decline to Rs 3,97,200 crore is predicted.
Kotak expects deposit development at 1% YoY, higher than feared, given latest considerations.
5. Provisions & Credit score Value:
Provisioning is predicted to stay elevated as a consequence of MFI stress.
- Nomura: Provisions Rs 1,790 crore, up 71% YoY and 29% QoQ
- Kotak: Expects slippages of ~₹1,700 crore (≈2%) from MFI
- Emkay / Nuvama: Additionally see excessive stress-related provisioning, albeit moderating QoQ
6. Credit score value
Nomura expects credit score value to rise by 81 bps YoY to 2.1% whereas declining 83 bps QoQ.
7. Key monitorables
Brokerages see asset high quality tendencies within the MFI portfolio as a key monitorable. Traders also needs to be careful for deposit mobilization, marginal value of funds, and governance scenario.
(Disclaimer: Suggestions, ideas, views and opinions given by the consultants are their very own. These don’t signify the views of Financial Occasions)
