Gold has emerged as one of many best-performing asset courses in 2025 to date, surging almost 25 p.c year-to-date (YTD) and scaling contemporary all-time highs on each the MCX and COMEX platforms. In line with Motilal Oswal Monetary Providers Ltd (MOSL), this rally has been underpinned by escalating geopolitical tensions, mounting commerce disputes—particularly between the US and China—and a notable spike in safe-haven demand from retail and institutional traders alike.
Silver, too, has trailed gold’s upward path, posting a stable 15 p.c achieve YTD on COMEX, Motilal Oswal famous. The agency mentioned that the momentum in treasured metals has been fuelled by fears of stagflation, persistent inflation, and world macroeconomic uncertainty, pushing traders to hunt the relative security of bullion.
Central financial institution shopping for, coverage dangers gasoline bullish momentum
Motilal Oswal maintained a bullish outlook for gold, citing sustained central financial institution shopping for, excessive inflation, and deteriorating commerce relations as long-term catalysts. On the technical entrance, the brokerage mentioned gold has sturdy assist round ₹91,000 and resistance close to ₹99,000 on MCX, whereas on COMEX, the essential ranges to look at are USD 3,100 on the draw back and USD 3,400 on the upside.
“Gold continues to be a beacon of stability in a world more and more marked by coverage uncertainty and risky geopolitics,” mentioned Navneet Damani, Group Senior Vice President and Head of Commodity & Forex Analysis at Motilal Oswal Monetary Providers. “As central banks shore up their reserves and traders search refuge from inflation and commerce disruptions, we proceed to advocate a ‘purchase on dips’ technique for gold over the medium to long run,” Damani added.
In the meantime, Satish Dondapati, Fund Supervisor at Kotak Mahindra AMC, echoed comparable views. “To this point gold has soared over 25 p.c, together with a 6 p.c achieve since 2nd April publish tariff announcement by the US. Going ahead, gold will stay sturdy within the brief time period if commerce tensions escalate. Nonetheless, the long-term outlook stays bullish, supported by sturdy central financial institution purchases and geopolitical uncertainties,” Dondapati famous.
Commerce tensions, weak greenback lengthen assist
To this point this yr, gold has considerably outpaced silver in each scale and tempo of good points, MOSL noticed. The agency pointed to current US coverage bulletins, together with former President Donald Trump’s name for sharply increased tariffs on Chinese language imports, which briefly weighed on gold costs however did not derail the broader uptrend. The Trump administration’s tariff escalation—concentrating on over 50 buying and selling companions and levying duties as excessive as 145 p.c on Chinese language items—has already drawn retaliatory strikes from China, amplifying fears of a protracted financial slowdown and even stagflation within the US.
Additional including to gold’s enchantment, Motilal Oswal highlighted a weakening US greenback, which has depreciated over 7 p.c towards main currencies in 2025. Concurrently, US Treasury yields have risen, pushed by unwinding hedge fund positions amid rising inflation expectations. Rising market central banks, notably China, have additionally been steadily ramping up their gold reserves, which MOSL mentioned provides structural assist to world gold costs.
As well as, the Federal Reserve’s financial coverage trajectory has been intently watched. Following three charge cuts in 2024, the US central financial institution has adopted a cautious stance in 2025. Whereas former President Trump has lobbied for extra cuts to stimulate the economic system, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has flagged inflationary dangers stemming from elevated tariffs and fragile world development, MOSL famous.
Regardless of a robust US labour market and low unemployment providing some assist to the economic system, the general world macroeconomic backdrop stays beneficial for gold. Motilal Oswal concluded that until vital progress is made towards resolving world commerce tensions, gold’s bull run is more likely to persist, supported by coverage uncertainty, central financial institution shopping for, and safe-haven flows.
Technical indicators level to warning close to highs
In line with Jateen Trivedi, VP Analysis Analyst – Commodity and Forex at LKP Securities, gold costs confirmed indicators of fatigue, slipping under current highs as COMEX traded close to USD 3,324 and MCX gold hovered round ₹95,250. The steel struggled to interrupt previous the important thing resistance at USD 3,350. On the draw back, sturdy assist lies between USD 3,280 and USD 3,290, making this zone vital for sustaining bullish momentum.
At these elevated ranges, volatility stays excessive, and any contemporary shopping for must be approached with warning, he mentioned. A decisive break under USD 3,290 might set off additional draw back, opening the door for a corrective transfer in direction of USD 3,150 within the close to time period.
With gold costs touching file highs and delivering near-25 p.c YTD good points, Motilal Oswal Monetary Providers reiterated that gold stays a compelling hedge towards inflation, commerce frictions, and world macro instability. In gentle of continued central financial institution accumulation and elevated geopolitical threat, the brokerage suggested long-term traders to build up gold throughout dips, sustaining a optimistic outlook on the yellow steel’s efficiency within the coming quarters.
Disclaimer: The views and suggestions made above are these of particular person analysts or broking firms, and never of Mint. We advise traders to test with licensed consultants earlier than making any funding selections.
