A Mint evaluation of subscription tendencies since 2022 reveals that between 65% and 80% of all functions now pour in on the ultimate day of the bidding window. This sample, seen throughout main IPOs from Tata Capital to Lenskart, indicators a elementary change in how India invests in new listings.
The primary two days of an IPO, which have been as soon as intervals of regular accumulation, now sometimes account for a mere 20-40% of whole bids, in keeping with market intelligence platform Prime Database.
The skew is much more pronounced in giant choices resembling Tenneco Clear Air, which acquired a staggering 93% of its bids on the ultimate day, adopted by Orkla India (92%), LG Electronics India (91%), and Lenskart Options (86%). This marks a pointy departure from the pre-2020 period, when subscriptions constructed up extra steadily and retail curiosity usually peaked a day earlier.
The numbers underscore a sustained development. In 2022, the median share of bids acquired on Day 3 was 65% of whole bids. This surged to 81% in 2023 and has remained elevated at round 80%. Which means that almost 4 out of each 5 functions in latest IPOs have been submitted on the final day.
This last-minute rush is reshaping the market’s mechanics, turning many IPOs into compressed, high-volatility occasions the place speculative flows can overpower elementary assessments.
“This post-2022 shift can maybe be defined by the sheer variety of IPOs which traders have the choice of selecting from. With so many points coming to the market, they like a wait-and-watch strategy and apply solely on the ultimate day, based mostly on how subscriptions and the gray market premium are shaping up. Retail traders, particularly, take a look at QIB demand earlier than bidding,” mentioned Pranav Haldea, managing director of Prime Database.
The institutional calculus
The shift is most excessive amongst institutional traders. Certified institutional consumers (QIBs), who historically unfold their commitments throughout the bidding interval, at the moment are nearly solely back-loading their participation. In 2022, 96% of QIB bids arrived on Day 3, rising to 99% in 2023 and 2024, and settling at 97% in 2025. This near-total migration signifies a strategic desire for minimizing capital lock-in.
Mainboard IPOs sometimes stay open for 3 working days. Nevertheless, in sure particular circumstances—resembling points requiring further time or regulatory extensions—the subscription window will be stretched to so long as 10 days.
Retail traders observe the lead
Retail traders, whereas not as excessive as establishments, are additionally behaving in a different way. In 2022, 54% of retail bids got here on the ultimate day. This proportion has climbed steadily, reaching 65% in 2025. Market consultants attribute this to a rising reliance on real-time indicators.
“Retail traders as we speak search for psychological consolation. They need proof of sturdy demand earlier than committing,” mentioned Vinod Nair, head of analysis at Geojit Monetary Providers.
He pointed to a rising dependence on real-time subscription information, grey-market premiums (GMP), social-media cues, and, crucially, institutional shopping for patterns. Retail candidates usually deal with subscription momentum as a proxy for potential itemizing beneficial properties.
This “wait-and-see” technique was clearly illustrated in latest points. “Take the HDB Monetary Providers IPO,” mentioned Ratiraj Tibrewal, chief government of Alternative Capital. “By the tip of Day 2, its subscription was solely about 1.16 occasions, however by the shut on Day 3, it had jumped to 16.7 occasions.”
He added that even within the Groww IPO, sturdy QIB and non-institutional investor (NII) participation materialized largely on the ultimate day, aligning with GMP indicators. This behaviour suggests traders are timing their participation based mostly on evolving sentiment somewhat than putting agency long-term bets firstly.
Distorted discovery
Nevertheless, this frenzy is creating important distortions. The tidal wave of last-day functions is overwhelming the Software Supported by Blocked Quantity (ASBA) and Unified Funds Interface (UPI) infrastructure, resulting in bidding slowdowns and short-term outages, significantly throughout high-profile 2025 points. “We’ve seen platforms wrestle beneath load. The infrastructure was not constructed for the whole market to use on the similar time,” famous Nair.
Past operational pressure, the compressed bidding window is hampering real worth discovery. Early, low subscription figures regularly suppress sentiment within the gray market, just for a late surge to artificially inflate the obvious demand. Nair warned that this dynamic “distorts true demand and complicates the pricing course of as a result of neither bankers nor traders get a dependable sign till the ultimate hours.”
Specialists additionally cautioned that a good portion of those late bids might lack long-term conviction. A number of IPOs with large 30-50x oversubscription have listed strongly solely to see their costs drift decrease inside weeks. “The hole between hype and conviction has widened,” mentioned Sachin Jasuja, head of equities and founding associate, Centricity WealthTech.
“We see coordinated withdrawals, opportunistic bidding, and sharp profit-taking after listings. These are indicators of a course of pushed extra by quick-money methods than long-term perception.”
A name for structural reform
Given the rising systemic dangers, analysts consider structural reforms could also be essential. Jasuja urged that earlier disclosure of institutional commitments, staggered bidding home windows, or differentiated cut-off occasions for investor classes might assist restore stability. Penalties for coordinated withdrawals and stronger real-time visibility into the bidding course of are additionally proposed options.
Nair emphasizes the necessity for technological upgrades, suggesting AI-driven doc checks and easier retail utility processes. He additionally proposes incentives for traders who bid on Day 1 or Day 2 to ease the final-day congestion. Each consultants stress the pressing have to fortify ASBA and UPI infrastructure to face up to peak-hour surges.
India’s major market is deeper and extra lively than ever, mobilizing a file ₹1.59 trillion in 2024 and already reaching ₹1.53 trillion in 2025. But, its mechanics have develop into extra fragile. Till these behavioural tendencies average and structural gaps are addressed, IPO investing will proceed to resemble a high-speed lottery—probably rewarding for fast flips however more and more dangerous for long-term traders.
