The joint assertion issued by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump on 13 February had set the objective of concluding the talks by the autumn of 2025. The leaders had resolved to deepen the US-India commerce relationship to advertise progress that ensures equity, nationwide safety and job creation. To this finish, the leaders set a daring new objective for bilateral commerce—’Mission 500’— aiming to greater than double whole bilateral commerce to $500 billion by 2030.
The proposed commerce settlement, for which discussions are underway, noticed each side provoke talks after over a month-long impasse, with the US delegation visiting New Delhi on 16 September, adopted by the Indian staff, led by Union minister Piyush Goyal, visiting Washington and holding talks from 22 to 24 September.
Complete deal
“The pact will cowl key sectors like defence, power, items commerce, know-how, house, and atomic power, however points equivalent to patents and sure regulatory issues will keep exterior its scope,” mentioned the primary among the many two cited above. “It should additionally embrace companies and funding flows, whereas addressing procedural limitations that companies face in accessing one another’s markets.”
Key Takeaways
- India and US finalizing complete deal, excluding patents and regulatory issues.
- Aim: “Mission 500” bilateral commerce, aiming for $500 billion by 2030, set by leaders.
- Commerce deal covers defence, power, know-how, companies, funding and procedural barrier discount.
- US tariffs on India reached 50% on account of Russian oil purchases, hurting key export sectors.
- Indian exporters are diversifying markets, together with China and UAE, to counter excessive US tariffs.
India’s exports to the US elevated from $34.21 billion in FY25 (April–August) to $40.35 billion in FY26 over the identical interval, a rise of 18.0%. Imports additionally grew by 8.5%, from $19.91 billion to $21.61 billion. This introduced whole bilateral commerce between India and the US through the interval to $61.96 billion in FY26, up from $54.12 billion in FY25, marking a progress of 14.5%.
Queries despatched to the ministries of commerce and exterior affairs remained unanswered.
Each side have held 5 rounds of face-to-face talks, and the sixth spherical, which was scheduled to happen from 25 August, was stalled amid a stalemate over the US insistence that India open crucial sectors equivalent to agriculture, dairy and GM crops for US merchandise. The difficulty was first reported by Mint on 11 June.
Good progress
“The talks are progressing effectively, and we’re hopeful of finalizing the deal throughout the timeline specified within the joint assertion,” the second particular person mentioned.
In response to a question, the US embassy spokesperson mentioned, “We refer you to the USTR for specifics on commerce negotiations.” “We worth our ongoing engagement with the Authorities of India on commerce and funding issues and sit up for persevering with to advance a productive and balanced commerce relationship between our two international locations,” the spokesperson mentioned.
The take care of the US is critically necessary for labour-intensive sectors equivalent to textiles, gems and jewelry, leather-based merchandise, agricultural merchandise, and shrimp, as these sectors face vital threats.
As per commerce ministry knowledge, bilateral commerce with the US stood at $131.84 billion in FY25, with exports of $86.51 billion and imports of $45.33 billion, leading to a commerce surplus of $41.18 billion. In FY24, exports had been $77.52 billion and imports $42.19 billion, taking whole commerce to $119.71 billion, with a commerce surplus of $35.33 billion.
Russian hurdle
Earlier, Mint reported on 25 September that the US has requested India to offer an assurance that it’s going to taper its purchases of Russian oil and enhance imports of American crude earlier than a commerce deal between the 2 nations could be finalized.
The US has imposed a punitive 25% tariff on India for getting Russian oil, which got here into impact on 27 August, whereas one other 25% tariff on India, levied as a reciprocal measure, has been in pressure since 7 August. Presently, India is going through the very best US tariff of fifty%, which is the same as Brazil’s, whereas all different US commerce companions are topic to decrease tariffs.
India’s merchandise exports to the US, its largest buying and selling companion, fell by an enormous 22.2% from $8.8 billion to $6.9 billion between Could and August 2025, based on a brand new report by the International Commerce Analysis Initiative (GTRI). US tariffs on Indian items rose from 10% in early August to 25% from 7 August, and eventually to a document 50% by the top of the month.
“It’s essential to stabilize exports, defend India’s market share within the US, and safeguard jobs in key sectors equivalent to textiles, gems and jewelry, seafood and prescription drugs. If speedy motion will not be taken, the excessive tariffs may trigger lasting setbacks to India’s export progress,” mentioned Ajay Srivastava, founding father of GTRI.
Diversification
To cut back the affect of US tariffs on manufactured exports, Indian exporters are diversifying their items to totally different markets equivalent to China, the UAE, the Netherlands, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Australia, amongst others.
As per the commerce ministry’s commerce knowledge for August 2025, exports to China climbed 22.4% to $1.22 billion, whereas shipments to the Netherlands rose 17.9% to $1.83 billion. The UAE imported items price $3.35 billion from India, marking a 23.4% annual improve, and exports to Hong Kong surged 62.5% to $584.7 million.
Different notable features got here from Italy, which imported Indian items price $631.2 million, up 15.7%. Exports additionally rose to South Africa ($654.1 million, up 19.7%), Nepal ($617.3 million, up 14.4%) and Bangladesh ($874.6 million, up 16.2%).
