Brokerage estimates counsel the non-banking finance main’s belongings beneath administration (AUM) expanded about 24% YoY and 4–5% QoQ to achieve practically Rs 4.6 lakh crore, led by sturdy traction throughout shopper, SME, and business lending.
Analysts imagine that whereas development momentum stays wholesome, focus will now shift to commentary on margins, credit score prices, and festive-season demand tendencies within the coming quarters.
NII and Margins: Secure tendencies anticipated
In line with Kotak Equities, Bajaj Finance is prone to publish NII development of 23–24% YoY, supported by larger volumes and a reasonable sequential uptick in spreads to eight.5% from 8.4% in Q1FY26, aided by a marginal discount in borrowing prices.
Margins are anticipated to stay regular at round 9.5–9.6%, as per estimates by Motilal Oswal and JM Monetary, whereas yields proceed to learn from portfolio repricing and a better share of unsecured loans.
Emkay World expects margins to enhance sequentially, pushed by easing funding prices amid an rising gentle rate of interest atmosphere. “Price-cut advantages are starting to mirror this quarter, supporting spreads,” the brokerage mentioned in its preview observe.
Asset high quality and credit score value: No main surprises
Analysts anticipate credit score prices to stay secure round 2% of AUM, broadly in step with latest quarters. Kotak tasks a cost-to-average AUM ratio of three.8%, bettering 18 foundation factors year-on-year, reflecting working leverage positive aspects from scale and tighter expense management.Emkay forecasts gross and web stage 3 ratios to carry agency at 1% and 0.5%, respectively, highlighting sturdy assortment effectivity and prudent underwriting. “General asset high quality ought to stay strong with credit score prices moderating marginally to under 2%,” it famous.
Revenue outlook: 23% YoY rise anticipated
Consensus estimates peg Bajaj Finance’s web revenue development at 23% YoY, supported by wholesome working revenue and decrease incremental credit score provisioning. JM Monetary mentioned the corporate’s pre-provision working revenue (PPOP) is prone to see 7% sequential development, reflecting regular efficiency throughout lending verticals.
Motilal Oswal expects total profitability to enhance in step with AUM development, including that commentary on the web curiosity margin (NIM) trajectory and credit score value pattern might be key to gauging earnings sustainability for FY26.
Key elements to observe
Administration outlook on festive-season demand and mortgage disbursement tendencies, updates on digital lending initiatives and buyer acquisition, commentary on fee cycle affect on margins, portfolio combine shift between secured and unsecured belongings and credit score value steerage for H2FY26.
