Week Forward: Reciprocal tariffs, auto gross sales, This autumn updates, FII circulate amongst key triggers for Indian inventory market

The Indian inventory market closed the 2024-25 (FY25) monetary yr with features after logging sharp features in March pushed by overseas capital influx, remaining phases of revenue reserving, and enhancing home financial indicators.

Subsequent, buyers will monitor key market triggers within the first week of the brand new fiscal (FY26). Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariff bulletins, overseas fund influx, home and world macroeconomic knowledge, auto gross sales figures, and world market cues will dictate the market route within the first week of April, marking the start of the brand new monetary yr 2025-26 (FY26).

Home fairness benchmarks Sensex and Nifty 50 prolonged their successful streaks for the second consecutive week. The Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex initially surged to an 11-week excessive earlier than paring features attributable to higher-level revenue reserving. By the tip of the week, the benchmark indices—Nifty and Sensex—closed at 23,519.30 and 77,414.92, respectively.

Additionally Learn: Nifty 50 logs greatest bounce in 15 months after historic five-month dropping streak: What needs to be your buying and selling technique now?

“A key technical spotlight was that every one main indices closed above the cluster of essential shifting averages, together with the 21, 55, 100, and 200-day EMAs. The market’s upward trajectory was primarily pushed by technical shopping for and worth accumulation close to key demand zones quite than any vital basic developments,” stated Puneet Singhania, Director at Grasp Belief Group.

On the weekly entrance, the BSE benchmark gauge climbed 509.41 factors or 0.66 per cent, and the Nifty went up by 168.95 factors or 0.72 per cent. After a stellar present within the 2023-24 (FY24) fiscal, inventory markets had a curler coaster trip in FY25. In FY25, the BSE bellwether gauge jumped 3,763.57 factors or 5.10 per cent, and the NSE Nifty climbed 1,192.45 factors or 5.34 per cent.

“The ultimate week of the present monetary yr opened on a robust notice however ended flat as investor sentiment weakened following the announcement of vehicle tariffs. Regardless of regular inflows from institutional buyers, the market struggled to maintain its momentum,” stated Vinod Nair, Head of Analysis at Geojit Investments Ltd.

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“Gold costs surged to report highs as buyers sought safe-haven belongings amid escalating commerce tensions. The upcoming week will provide larger readability on tariff developments, enabling buyers to evaluate their affect on the worldwide economic system…Investor focus is shifting towards quarterly earnings stories, that are anticipated to supply a clearer image of earnings restoration,” stated Nair.

This week, the first market will witness a subdued development with no new preliminary public choices (IPO) and only some listings slated throughout the mainboard and small and medium enterprises (SME) segments. The vacation-shortened week will likely be crucial from the home and technical factors of view. Traders will monitor home and world macroeconomic knowledge.

Listed below are the important thing triggers for the Indian inventory market within the coming week:

Macro knowledge, Auto gross sales

India’s HSBC Composite PMI knowledge for March is ready to be launched on Friday, April 4, with a projected worth of 58.6. A studying stronger than expectations might sign sturdy financial growth, influencing investor sentiment and market traits. Month-to-month auto gross sales figures for March will maintain auto shares in focus.

No new IPOs, 4 new listings to hit D-Road

There will likely be no new public points within the mainboard or SME section within the upcoming week. Nonetheless, three new SMEs are scheduled to be listed on both BSE SME or NSE SME.

FII Exercise

A serious enhance to the market’s sentiment final week got here from overseas institutional buyers (FIIs) returning as internet consumers, injecting ₹17,426 crore into the money section, whereas home institutional buyers (DIIs) added ₹6,797 crore, additional fueling the rally.

“The change in FII technique from sustained promoting to modest shopping for, which was seen within the week ending March 21, continued with elevated depth for the week ending March 28,” stated Dr VK Vijayakumar, Chief Funding Strategist, Geojit Investments Ltd.

Additionally Learn: Block deal on March 28: Goldman Sachs acquires HAL, Zomato shares value ₹281 crore by way of open market

Huge shopping for by FIIs over the past a number of days of March considerably diminished the overall FII promoting to ₹6,027 crore. Since FIIs invested ₹2,055 crore via the first market, the web FII promote determine for March is right down to solely ₹3,972 crore.

In accordance with Dr VK Vijayakumar, the next causes prompted FIIs to show consumers:

-The valuations turned enticing after round 16 per cent correction from the September 2024 peak.

-⁠Current appreciation within the rupee led to a reversal of the momentum commerce in the direction of US funding.

-India’s macros – GDP, IIP and CPI inflation- improved, paving the way in which for a rally out there.

“Going ahead, the development in FII flows will rely primarily on Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, that are anticipated on April 2. If the tariffs aren’t extreme, the rally could proceed,” added Dr VK Vijayakumar.

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In accordance with Manoj Purohit, Accomplice & Chief, FS Tax, Tax & Regulatory Companies, BDO India, “Turning the tide this week, FPI inflows have began in inexperienced, bringing again the cheer within the Indian market regardless of the final week of the monetary yr, which often witnesses substantial revenue reserving.

“The previous couple of buying and selling classes have been gloomy and unstable for the Indian market. Among the major causes on the macroeconomic entrance had been the US making bulletins in regards to the imposition of reciprocal tariffs, Center East tensions, rising inflation, low consumption, and better valuations,” added Purohit.

International Cues, Reciprocal tariffs

With the upcoming holiday-shortened week, market contributors will flip their consideration to world developments within the absence of main home triggers. The implementation of reciprocal tariffs from April 2 and its broader implications on world commerce will likely be intently monitored.

International markets are set to be unstable this week, pushed by India-US tariff coverage developments, the affect of US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 25 per cent tariff on completed car imports efficient April 3, 2025, and the speech of US Fed Chair Powell.

The US JOLTS Job Openings (February) knowledge figures will likely be launched on April 1. China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI for March, estimated at 51, will likely be launched, offering insights into the situation of the nation’s industrial sector.

Key US financial knowledge, together with the Composite PMI and preliminary jobless claims for March, will likely be launched on Thursday, April 3. The US International Composite PMI output index, a weighted common of the Manufacturing Output Index and the Companies Enterprise Exercise Index, is projected to be 53.5, considerably larger than the earlier studying of 51.6.

Additionally Learn: Oil logs third weekly achieve after US tariffs put strain on Venezuelan crude; Brent, WTI achieve 6-7% in March

The UK S&P International Composite PMI can also be scheduled for April 3. On April 4, the US common hourly earnings, non-farm payrolls, and unemployment price for March will likely be launched, offering insights into the US job market. US Federal Reserve Chair Powell will ship a speech which will likely be intently analysed for the US Fed’s future financial coverage stance and financial outlook.

“Notably, regardless of beneficial macroeconomic knowledge, US markets edged decrease, reflecting ongoing uncertainty concerning the affect of tariff wars. Traders stay cautious of rising inflationary pressures, which might restrict the US Federal Reserve’s capability to reasonable rates of interest,” stated Ajit Mishra – SVP, Analysis, Religare Broking Ltd.

Company Motion

Shares of United Spirits, Varun Drinks, MSTC, DCM Shriram Industries, amongst others will commerce ex-dividend within the coming week. Shares of some shares may even commerce ex-bonus. Verify full listing right here

Technical View

From a technical perspective, Nifty 50’s decisive breakout might open the door for a rally in the direction of 24,100, whereas a breakdown could prolong the consolidation section, with the subsequent main help at 23,100. Learn full technical evaluation right here

Disclaimer: The views and proposals supplied on this evaluation are these of particular person analysts or broking firms, not Mint. We strongly advise buyers to seek the advice of with licensed specialists, think about particular person danger tolerance, and conduct thorough analysis earlier than making funding selections, as market circumstances can change quickly, and particular person circumstances could fluctuate.