Prediction market Polymarket now offers greater odds of confirmed alien existence this yr than Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) reaching $200,000, an information quirk that is sparking debate throughout crypto and prediction circles.
Polymarket Bets On Extraterrestrials Over Bitcoin
In response to Polymarket information, merchants assign a 6% chance that the USA confirms extraterrestrial life in 2025, versus simply 5% odds that Bitcoin hits $200,000 earlier than year-end.
In different phrases, the market at the moment believes an alien sighting is barely extra believable than a doubling in Bitcoin’s value over the following ten weeks.
Polymarket’s “alien affirmation” contract has attracted practically $4 million in buying and selling quantity, with costs trending decrease since midyear.
It is the one market the place Elon Musk, Satoshi Nakamoto, and little inexperienced males compete for a similar headline.
Bitcoin Value Struggles To Maintain Key $107,000 Assist
Bitcoin trades close to $108,000, hovering above its $104,000–$105,000 demand zone after slipping under main EMAs clustered round $113,700–$114,400.
The breakdown from $126,000 earlier this month pushed value below each its ascending trendline and long-term structural assist, leaving the chart susceptible to a retest of $96,000–$92,000.
The RSI at 36 exhibits mildly oversold situations, however promoting momentum stays intact.
For bulls, reclaiming the $113,000–$114,500 resistance zone is vital to restoring any near-term optimism.
On-Chain Information Reveals Bitcoin Outflows Easing
BTC Netflows (Supply: Coinglass)
Recent alternate information suggests outflows stay heavy however are exhibiting indicators of moderation.
On October 18, netflows recorded a $46.05 million outflow, smaller than the billion-dollar wave seen earlier within the week, in line with Coinglass.
The determine comes after practically $1.6 billion in cumulative outflows throughout 5 classes, a sequence that pressured Bitcoin into its present consolidation zone.
ETF volumes have cooled, and funding charges stay barely unfavourable, reinforcing defensive positioning throughout derivatives markets.
Why It Issues
Polymarket’s alien-versus-Bitcoin odds present how hypothesis thrives when fundamentals weaken.
This weird pricing highlights merchants’ rising desire for narratives over numbers.
It reveals a market psychology the place disbelief in belongings rivals perception within the extraordinary.
Such sentiment extremes typically precede main pivots in each threat urge for food and asset course.
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