As India-Pakistan battle grows, here is how fairness markets, GDP have navigated wars

As India’s forceful response to Pakistan’s escalations enters its fourth day, a glance again at historical past means that whereas previous wars have had minimal lasting affect on home fairness markets, the nation’s financial development has typically borne the brunt of such conflicts.

On Friday, Nifty ended with sharp cuts of 1.1% at 24,008 whereas falling 1.5% since India struck terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK) on Might 7 to avenge the Pahalgam assault. Issues at the moment are altering thick and quick.

In its evaluation of the market motion and the GDP, brokerage agency JM Monetary explains the affect of earlier wars and the way the state of affairs is completely different this time round.

Right here is the complete break-up of occasions and their affect:

1. Kargil Conflict – A full-scale conflict that was fought between Might 3, 1999 and July 26, 1999, Nifty jumped 7% on the finish of the third-day into the conflict. By the top of the conflict, the headline index galloped 35.6%.
2. Parliament assault: This occurred on December 13, 2001 and was adopted by a border stand-off that lasted until June 19, 2002. Nifty fell 1.8% over three classes whereas plunging 4% by the top.
3. 26/11 Mumbai Assaults: The assault occurred on November 26, 2008, and the strain lasted until November 29, 2008. The Nifty index was up 3.8% over the span of the operations.
4. Uri Assault + Surgical Strikes: The occasions unfolded between September 18, 2016 and September 28, 2016, and Nifty remained flat over the primary three classes whereas declining marginally by 0.4% by the top of operations.
5. Pulwama Assault + Balakot Airstrike: The occasions unfolded between February 14, 2019 and February 26, 2019. Nifty declined 0.6%, three days after the assault whereas gaining by 0.4% by the top of the operations.
6. Pahalgam Assault: The assault occurred on unsuspecting civilians on Apr 22, 2025. Whereas the story remains to be ongoing, the Nifty jumped 1.7% on the finish of the third day of the incident. As on Friday, Nifty was nonetheless up 0.6%.

Nifty was launched in 1995 and India fought 4 wars previous to Kargil conflict viz. first Kashmir conflict which began on October 22, 1947 and ended on January 1, 1949; the second Kashmir Conflict between July 5,1965 and September 23, 1965, Indo-China conflict of 1962 and Bangladesh Liberation Conflict between December 3, 1971 to December 16, 1971.

Impression on GDP

Throughout the Indo-China conflict of 1962, GDP noticed a decline of 0.8%, JM stated, whereas highlighting that related traits had been witnessed submit the Indo-Pak conflict in 1965, whereby GDP declined 2.6% in 1965 after a development of seven.5% within the previous 12 months. Throughout the 1971 conflict, whereas a GDP decline was not seen, the expansion fell to 1.6% from 5.2%, this brokerage stated.The 1999 Kargil conflict seems to be the one state of affairs whereby the 12 months of conflict noticed a rise in GDP development (8.9%) as in comparison with 6.2% in 1998. Whereas the GDP has been adversely impacted, JM stated that the Indian economic system now’s far bigger and extra resilient than what it was throughout earlier conflicts.

(Disclaimer: Suggestions, solutions, views and opinions given by the specialists are their very own. These don’t symbolize the views of Financial Occasions)