Domestically, the Reserve Financial institution of India’s Financial Coverage Committee (MPC) took a dovish flip, reducing the repo price by 25 foundation factors to six.0% and shifting its coverage stance from ‘impartial’ to ‘accommodative,’ in step with expectations.
Regardless of the subdued weekly pattern, markets rallied strongly on Friday. The Nifty jumped 429 factors (1.92%) to shut at 22,828, whereas the Sensex surged 1,310 factors (1.77%) to finish at 75,157, after having gained over 1,600 factors throughout intraday commerce.
With the market closing with these dynamics, analyst Rahul Ghose, Founding father of Hedged.in, interacted with ET Markets, sharing his views and significant ranges on the indices:
With Trump’s speak of tariffs, then a pause, and particularly focusing on China and presumably India, what sort of ripple impact might which have on international threat sentiment and the Indian fairness market?
The tariff bulletins triggered a worldwide risk-off sentiment, with Indian equities (Nifty/Sensex) plunging 3-5% initially. Nevertheless, the 90-day pause on April 9 spurred a partial restoration, with Nifty rebounding ~2% to 22,821. Persistent US-China tensions (125% tariffs on China) and India’s 26% tariff publicity will maintain markets unstable. A chronic standoff might stress export-linked sectors (IT, pharma) and amplify recession dangers, although India’s domestic-driven financial system could fare higher than friends.
What’s the normal view on the markets after the RBI MPC end result, on condition that they modified their stance to ‘accommodative’?
The RBI’s shift to an accommodative stance and back-to-back price cuts sign proactive progress help, with FY26 CPI projected at 4%. This dovish pivot, coupled with easing crude costs, improves liquidity and consumption prospects, notably for rate-sensitive sectors (banks, autos). Nevertheless, international commerce uncertainties could restrict upside.
The place is Nifty headed now, in your opinion?
Nifty is displaying resilience. Each time markets hole down, we see Nifty pulling again up, indicating energy within the Indian fairness markets. Nevertheless, if one takes a rational view trying on the charts, Nifty is buying and selling in a sideways vary on every day and weekly time frames and continues to be in an uptrend on the month-to-month. It’s nonetheless defending the month-to-month 20 EMA. Total, markets are prone to commerce with a sideways bias. If there aren’t any unfavourable surprises, one can assume that the short-term backside of 21,743 on the Nifty spot will maintain for a while. Nevertheless, on the upside, Nifty faces a number of resistances, the primary key degree being 23,500-23,870. On the draw back, 21,281, which is the election low, will proceed to be a robust help.
How do you suppose Financial institution Nifty is positioned proper now?
Nifty Financial institution too is buying and selling in a every day and weekly sideways vary. The higher finish of the vary is 52,260-53,775, and on the decrease aspect, 47,840 and 46,080 are robust help ranges. Financial institution Nifty too is seen defending its month-to-month 20 EMA, which is bullish. Apparently, whereas Nifty is buying and selling manner beneath its 200 DEMA, Financial institution Nifty is hovering round its 200 DEMA, indicating relative energy.
Key ranges or any technique?
The most effective technique underneath the present circumstances could be to play the vary. On the upside, look to promote across the 23,500 and above space on some bearish confirmations, and on the draw back, contemplate shopping for across the hole areas of twenty-two,300-22,500 on some bullish confirmations. Alternatively, one may arrange non-directionals like Iron Condor to play the broader vary of the markets.
Are there any divergence patterns or technical setups on the every day or weekly charts that merchants ought to be cautious or optimistic about within the broader indices?
Nifty IT (at present 32,740) charts are trying bearish for decrease targets. The April month is displaying indicators of convincingly closing beneath the 20 EMA, and perhaps, might hit the decrease finish of the month-to-month BB positioned at 29,000. IT is one sector that merchants ought to be cautious about within the quick time period. However, Nifty FMCG appears convincingly bullish and may present appreciable outperformance within the upcoming months. The FMCG index is forming a robust bullish candle on the decrease finish of the Bollinger band on the month-to-month chart and has additionally crossed the prior month-to-month excessive of 54,150. The present weekly chart has closed as a Bullish Marubozu candle, suggesting robust shopping for within the general FMCG index.
I want to know your opinion available on the market. With all of the volatility, is it actually a market the place merchants can take positions? As I see it, a dealer simply can’t afford to hold in a single day positions, with such gap-ups in the future and gap-downs on the opposite.
Appropriate. The present volatility makes it not possible to take directional futures bets, and they aren’t really useful. One of the simplest ways to play this market is thru choices on account of their draw back safety. Trades ought to have hedged positions always, ideally credit score spreads, as volatility ranges in sure shares are extraordinarily elevated.
We’ve seen constant FII promoting once more lately. How is that impacting market sentiment and derivatives positioning, notably in index futures and choices? Do you see it ending quickly? Do the FIIs have any causes to return to us?
FIIs have internet bought ₹38,000 crore in April, driving elevated put/name ratios (1.2+) and steep futures reductions. Sustained promoting could persist till US-China tensions ease. Re-entry is prone to hinge on tariff stability and INR stability aided by RBI price cuts.
What’s your opinion on the IT sector now that TCS reported below-than-expected This fall outcomes?
As talked about earlier, the IT sector is trying involved and may even see additional draw back. Buyers ought to have a wait-and-watch strategy. Keep away from doing lumpsum investments, as one could get the shares at 15-20% beneath the present ranges. The SIP strategy to getting into IT shares would be the greatest, as however near-term uncertainties, the long-term outlook appears promising because of the GenAI deal pipeline.
Which sectors are displaying relative energy or weak spot on the charts which might be notably noteworthy? And the way can merchants use that to their benefit within the quick to medium time period?
Relative energy: FMCG (Nestlé, HUL up 4-6%) – ought to be thought of for potential lengthy positions. Relative weak spot: IT, metals, PSU banks. Ought to be on the radar for potential shorts on rallies.
Which particular shares are displaying robust breakout or breakdown patterns from a technical standpoint and look promising for short-term trades?
Asian Paints appears promising. A break and shut above 2,420 might propel the inventory to newer highs of two,600/2,700 ranges within the quick to medium time period. Kotak Financial institution appears poised for a breakout and will quickly attain all-time excessive ranges, primarily based on the general chart buildings.
How do you see the worldwide macro narrative—particularly from the US state of affairs and Fed coverage—taking part in into India’s F&O house over the following quarter?
US recession fears and Fed rate-cut delays could spur defensive F&O methods (put shopping for, low-beta longs like FMCG shares). Monitoring US 10-year yields and DXY for directional cues will likely be extraordinarily essential for merchants.
(Disclaimer: Suggestions, options, views and opinions given by the specialists are their very own. These don’t characterize the views of The Financial Instances)
