Gold costs have proven an upward motion over the previous couple of months, leaving traders with over 30 per cent annual good points in each 2024 and 2025. This may point out that the market is nearing a consolidation section, in accordance with new insights from main commodity analysis companies.
Mumbai-based Motilal Oswal Wealth Administration (MOWM) and world analysis company BMI, a unit of Fitch Options, now anticipate restricted near-term upside for bullion.
What’s driving the rally?
BMI not too long ago printed a report stating, “We preserve our 2025 gold value forecast at an annual common of $3,100/oz, and are impartial in direction of costs for the approaching months.” Regardless of latest geopolitical spikes, together with the Israel-Iran escalation in June, BMI believes many of the geopolitical premium is already priced in.
It highlighted that gold touched a seven-week intraday excessive of $3,451/ozon June 16 after Israel’s strike on Iran however didn’t breach the sooner document of $3,500/ozseen in April. “Solely a full-blown regional conflict — unlikely at this stage — might drive costs past $4,000/oz,” BMI famous, warning that costs might dip in direction of $3,000/ozwith out contemporary triggers.
Motilal Oswal: “We name it quits”
In a sharply titled word “Gold bull run: We name it quits”, MOWM stated a number of tailwinds — together with geopolitical dangers, inflationary strain, and a weak US greenback — have already been factored into the present rally.
“Comex gold has by no means gained greater than 32 per cent in a single 12 months within the final 25 years. With costs already elevated, the market appears fatigued,” the brokerage stated, hinting at a potential interval of consolidation. It added that for gold to rise additional, new and significant catalysts should emerge.
JP Morgan stays bullish: $4,000/ozin sight
In distinction, JP Morgan Analysis stays strongly bullish. It tasks gold to common $3,675/ozin This autumn 2025 and climb in direction of $4,000/ozby Q2 2026. “We stay deeply satisfied of a continued structural bull case for gold and lift our value targets accordingly,” stated Natasha Kaneva, Head of World Commodities Technique at JP Morgan.
Kaneva pointed to recession chances, central financial institution shopping for, and trade-related uncertainty below a possible Trump administration as drivers that would hold gold buoyant. “We anticipate a flooring round $2,800/oz,” she added.
What’s subsequent for gold?
At 2 July, spot gold was at $3,335.52/ozand August futures have been at $3,345.35/oz.
Gold futures on MCX in India have been round Rs 97,101 per 10 gm.
MOWM and BMI are each of the opinion that the coverage posture of the US Fed and macroeconomic indications could be pivotal to the route of costs going ahead.
Whereas some analysts are calling time on gold’s historic bull run, others stay satisfied of additional upside in 2025–26. For traders, the important thing lies in watching US Fed strikes, central financial institution demand, and geopolitical triggers.
