After remaining range-bound for almost 4 months, the Nifty 50 index is inching in the direction of its September 2024 excessive, buoyed by optimism over a possible India–US commerce deal, improved company earnings for the July–September 2025 quarter, and on the again of a coverage charge reduce by the US Federal Reserve late on Wednesday.
The commerce deal hopes gathered steam on Wednesday after US President Donald Trump mentioned in the course of the APEC CEO Summit in South Korea, “I’m doing a commerce take care of India, and I’ve nice respect and love for Prime Minister (Narendra) Modi. We have now an excellent relationship.”
The benchmark Nifty 50 closed at 26,053 on 29 October, simply 224 factors in need of its 27 September 2024 peak of 26,277. Market momentum has already been constructing on festive demand, GST-led triggers, and the transmission of earlier charge cuts. Now, analysts say, a breakthrough in commerce talks may push the index past its earlier excessive.
“Heading into the November expiry, we count on the index to commerce in a broad vary of 25,600-26,300, with an upward bias, and amongst one of many catalysts driving the rally can be positivity across the India-US commerce deal,” IIFL Securities mentioned in a report dated 28 October.
Shrikant Chouhan, head of fairness analysis at Kotak Securities, predicted a sustained upward trajectory for the Nifty 50 as soon as it crosses the September peak, though the motion can be gradual and sustainable moderately than euphoric. And if info know-how (IT) shares start to take part—presumably after the Fed charge reduce—the Nifty may even lengthen positive aspects towards the 27,000 mark, he mentioned.
Chouhan backs his projection on the again of the US Federal Reserve’s charge reduce, bond yields easing additional and the rupee remaining steady. The US Fed reduce its benchmark in a single day lending charge by 25 foundation factors.
“Additionally, international buyers have slowed their promoting and company earnings have largely met expectations, supported by reforms comparable to GST and tax advantages.”
Notably, after constantly being internet sellers since July, FIIs (international institutional buyers) have purchased $2,385 million in secondary markets in October, in accordance with information from NSDL.
George Thomas, fund supervisor at Quantum Mutual Fund mentioned that the transfer may maintain as earnings proceed to enhance.
“Key sectors comparable to banking and IT are displaying indicators of stability. In banking, most credit score prices and margin pressures are behind, whereas credit score development is reviving. The IT sector, after a part of subdued spending, may see renewed traction, particularly if the India–US commerce deal materialises, as it will increase company sentiment and challenge exercise,” Thomas mentioned.
The earnings development for Nifty 50 has additionally fared higher than the earlier quarter. The income development for Nifty 50 firms—those that have reported outcomes—is at 3.24% year-on-year (y-o-y) within the second quarter of fiscal 12 months 2026 (Q2FY26). In Q1FY26, earnings development had slowed by 1.64% y-o-y.
In response to Alok Singh, chief funding officer at Financial institution of India MF, if the commerce deal materialises, it will be optimistic for markets over the long run because it may increase exports, spur personal funding and entice manufacturing exercise to India.
“Larger exports to the US would enhance capability utilisation and encourage new investments, addressing the present weak point in personal capex. Moreover, the deal may push US firms to de-risk from China and arrange manufacturing bases in India, making the ‘China plus one’ technique extra achievable,” Singh added.
