Nifty 50 to hit 25,500 by March, says Axis Securities; lists 15 shares to purchase

Home brokerage home Axis Securities believes indian inventory market benchmark Nifty 50 has the potential to achieve 25,500 by March 2026 highlighting India’s favorable long-term development story supported by rising capex, consumption, and credit score development from the Union Funds and GST 2.0 reforms. They forecast a 13% CAGR in Nifty earnings over FY23-27, with financials being the biggest contributor. Nonetheless, they cautioned that commerce coverage uncertainty, rupee depreciation, and delayed earnings revival stay near-term dangers.

“The present degree of India’s VIX is under its long-term common, indicating that the market is presently in a impartial zone (neither panic nor exuberance). Whereas the medium to long-term outlook for the general market stays constructive, we might even see volatility within the quick run. Therefore, we advocate traders preserve good liquidity (10-15%) to make use of any dips in a phased method and construct a place in high-quality corporations (the place the earnings visibility is sort of excessive) with an funding horizon of 12-18 months,” it mentioned in a be aware.

Nifty’s goal: The bottom, bull, and bear case situations

The bottom case, or the most certainly or anticipated goal of Nifty 50, is 25,500.

“In our base case, we revise our Mar’26 Nifty goal to 25,500 by valuing it at 20x on Mar’27 earnings. (After Q1FY26, we noticed a lower of three% in FY27 earnings). Primarily based on the expectations of the earnings improve ranging from Q3FY26 onwards, we see upside danger to our goal,” acknowledged the brokerage.

Within the bull case, Axis Securities values Nifty at 21 occasions, translating right into a March 2026 goal of 26,800.

“Our bull case assumption is predicated on the Goldilocks situation, which assumes an total discount in volatility and a profitable gentle touchdown within the US market. The market is keenly watching the worldwide development situation in 2025 below Trump’s presidency. Moreover, non-public Capex, which has been sluggish for the final a number of years, is anticipated to obtain a much-needed increase within the upcoming years, with the expectation of coverage continuity,” it defined.

Within the bear case, Axis values Nifty at 17 occasions, arriving at a March 2026 goal of 21,600.

“We assume the market will commerce at above-average valuations, led by the chance of a coverage shift within the Trump regime. Furthermore, we presume that inflation will proceed to pose challenges within the developed world. The worldwide market has not seen such elevated rates of interest within the current previous. Therefore, the probabilities of going improper have elevated considerably. Nonetheless, the route of forex, oil costs, and international commerce developments will possible put stress on export-oriented development within the remaining a part of FY26,” mentioned Axis.

Rebound possible in October?

Indian fairness markets noticed combined tendencies in September 2025, following a four-month rally that cooled off in July and August. Axis Securities famous that whereas structural reforms comparable to GST rationalisation initially boosted sentiment, the market struggled to keep up momentum. Components comparable to “depreciation within the Indian forex, combined tendencies in US insurance policies, stock overhang as a result of GST cuts, FII promoting, and earnings revival nonetheless 1 / 4 away” contributed to cautious buying and selling.

Geopolitical challenges additionally weighed on sentiment, with the Trump administration imposing tariffs on Indian merchandise and elevating visa fees for the IT sector, which Axis Securities highlighted as “additional hurting the sector already fighting development.”

“Threat-Reward is slowly constructing in the direction of Mid and Smallcaps. Nonetheless, restoration might be gradual and gradual as we progress in the direction of FY26, led by robust earnings expectations, bettering home liquidity, and secure Indian macros. We imagine the

market must sail by way of one other couple of months easily earlier than coming into right into a concrete route of development. Consequently, we count on near-term consolidation out there, with breadth possible remaining slim within the rapid time period,” mentioned the brokerage.

Market Technique for October

Axis Securities recommends specializing in “development at an affordable worth” by investing in high quality shares, market leaders, monopolies, and domestically-focused sectors. Their sector preferences embrace BFSI, telecom, consumption, hospitals, interest-rate proxies, and choose capex-oriented performs, whereas sustaining a cautious stance on export-oriented sectors as a result of tariff dangers and macroeconomic uncertainties.

“We proceed to 1) like and chubby BFSI, Telecom, Consumption, Hospitals, and Curiosity-rate proxies, 2) Proceed to keep up constructive view on Retail consumption performs, 3) Desire sure capex-oriented performs that look enticing at this level because of the current worth correction in addition to cheap development visibility within the home market in FY26, and 4) Keep cautious stance on export-oriented sector as a result of tariff overhang and macroeconomic uncertainties,” prompt Axis.

Prime Inventory Picks for October

Reflecting these insights, Axis Securities up to date its high picks for October 2025, including Mahanagar Fuel and reserving earnings in Varun Drinks.

Different advisable shares embrace HDFC Financial institution, Bajaj Finance, Shriram Finance, Avenue Supermarts, State Financial institution of India, Lupin, Hero Motocorp, Max Healthcare, Kirloskar Brothers, Kalpataru Initiatives, APL Apollo Tubes, Bharti Airtel, Status Estates, and Sansera Engineering.

Disclaimer: The views and suggestions made above are these of particular person analysts or broking corporations, and never of Mint. We advise traders to verify with licensed consultants earlier than making any funding selections.