A model of this text first appeared in CNBC’s Inside Wealth publication with Robert Frank, a weekly information to the high-net-worth investor and client. Join to obtain future editions, straight to your inbox.
Greater than a 3rd of the apartment flats offered in Manhattan over roughly the previous yr offered at a loss, though the highest finish of the market fared higher, in response to a brand new report.
Regardless of the regular stream of headlines about eye-popping gross sales and hovering costs in Manhattan actual property, the median worth per sq. foot for Manhattan condos is basically flat from a decade in the past, in response to a report from Brown Harris Stevens. One in three apartment resales between July 2024 and June 2025 had been offered at a loss, in response to the report. When together with inflation, transaction prices and renovations, the share of losses by apartment sellers is probably going even increased, in response to actual property analysts.
Whereas the info did not embody co-ops, analysts say co-op costs have typically fared the identical or barely worse than condos.
“For the final decade, Manhattan has primarily been transferring sideways,” mentioned Jonathan Miller, CEO of Miller Samuel, the appraisal and actual property analysis agency.
The long-term worth weak spot in Manhattan stands in stark distinction to a lot of the nation, the place house costs are up considerably because the pandemic, making a widespread affordability disaster. Solely 2% of house sellers nationally who bought houses earlier than the pandemic are vulnerable to promoting at a loss, in response to Redfin.
Manhattan continues to be among the many most costly markets within the nation, particularly on a per-square-foot foundation. The median worth for Manhattan gross sales within the third quarter was $1.2 million, whereas the typical is slightly below $2 million, in response to Miller Samuel and Douglas Elliman. But over the long term, an evaluation of resales finds that the timing of purchases in Manhattan sometimes issues greater than location.
Rental homeowners who purchased earlier than 2010 have fared the perfect. The median positive factors for these in that cohort who offered over roughly the previous yr had been between 29% and 45%, in response to the Brown Harris report. Costs began to rise after the monetary disaster, peaking in 2016. Which means for individuals who purchased between 2011 and 2015, the sale positive factors prior to now yr had been modest, round 11%.
The most important losers had been those that purchased after 2016. Half of the patrons who purchased between 2016 and 2020 offered at a loss over the surveyed interval. Amongst those that purchased between 2021 and 2024, the positive factors had been slim – though some patrons who acquired offers throughout the depths of the Covid downturn in late 2020 and early 2021 could fare higher.
Including in different prices of shopping for, promoting and possession would additional add to the losses. Transaction prices in Manhattan can vary from 6% to 10%, in response to brokers. Renovations and enhancements additionally aren’t counted within the losses, nor are upkeep charges or taxes. Adjusting for inflation would additionally improve the losses and decrease returns.
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, co-director of the Paul Milstein Heart for Actual Property on the Graduate Faculty of Enterprise at Columbia College, mentioned inflation has elevated 36% over the previous decade.
“So if I had invested in a Manhattan apartment in September 2015 (near the height) and offered it in August 2025 for a similar nominal worth, a 0% nominal return, I truly misplaced 36% in actual phrases,” he mentioned. “That is stunning since many individuals consider actual property as inflation hedge.”
He famous that the Case-Shiller nationwide house worth index went up 89% within the 10 years between September 2015 and August 2025, “rather a lot higher than in NYC and likewise far increased than the 36% inflation.”
The explanations for Manhattan’s “misplaced decade” in apartment costs are as diversified as they’re disputed. The cap on state and native tax deductions that started in 2018 put strain on costs and demand, as did a 2019 hire legislation. The migration of some increased earners to Florida throughout Covid additionally added to actual property fears, though the inhabitants and demand shortly rebounded.
The one exception to the pattern was the highest of the market. Those that purchased and offered flats for $10 million or extra made double-digit income, regardless of once they initially purchased.
Brokers and analysts say the elevated focus of wealth on the high, rising inventory markets and ceaseless demand from those that are much less affected by financial and market cycles has powered continued positive factors within the luxurious market.
“The upper finish has fared higher over the last decade, particularly in, as an instance, the highest 4% of the market,” Miller mentioned. “The reason being Wall Avenue and monetary markets. And the power to purchase in money, impartial of rates of interest.”
Two thirds of the house offers accomplished within the third quarter had been accomplished in money, Miller mentioned, far above the historic common of round 53% and exhibiting the continued dependence of the Manhattan market on rich patrons who do not want mortgages.
In a market outlined by frequent ups and downs, brokers say the present upswing presents a chance for each patrons and sellers.
“I am bullish and have a really constructive outlook for New York actual property,” mentioned Jared Antin, govt director at Brown Harris Stevens and a co-author of the report. “Whereas some individuals could have misplaced cash on the offers [over the decade], the losses had been negligible. It speaks to the blue chip nature of the Manhattan market. Does everybody wish to earn a living on their actual property? After all. However this market is extremely secure.”
Sellers who purchased throughout the dip in 2020 and early 2021 might additionally see income once they begin to promote, Antin mentioned.
Nonetheless, with median costs hovering close to all-time highs and uncertainty across the upcoming mayoral election, many potential patrons want to remain on the sidelines and hire, even when they will afford to purchase. The variety of households in New York Metropolis making greater than $1 million a yr who’re renting greater than doubled between 2019 and 2023, to five,661, in response to a report from RentCafe.
What’s extra, signed contracts for high-end flats — priced at $4 million or extra — fell 39% in September, in response to Olshan Realty, following will increase in August and July. Brokers blame a speedy decline in stock and lack of latest provide from apartment developments moderately than a decline in demand or fears that Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist, would change into the subsequent mayor of New York Metropolis.
“There actually is a draw back threat to coverage,” Miller mentioned. “However as we have seen prior to now, these fears are often overblown.”
