Professional view: Nifty 50 can surpass 28k by subsequent Diwali; these sectors could generate alpha, says Rahul Ghose of Hedged.in

Professional view on Indian inventory market: Rahul Ghose, the founder and CEO of Octanom Tech and Hedged.in, believes the Nifty 50 could surpass the 28,000 mark by subsequent Diwali, supported by international liquidity, home inflows, and a resilient company steadiness sheet. In an interview with Mint, Ghose shared his outlook on the Indian inventory market, key dangers for the market, and sectors that may generate alpha in Samvat 2082. Listed here are edited excerpts of the interview:

Samvat 2081 was a disappointment for the Indian market. What could cause a rebound in Samvat 2082?

Earnings restoration, bettering liquidity and political stability are the important thing components markets would search for in a possible rebound.

FIIs had been largely web sellers in calendar 12 months 2025; for them to return, earnings restoration has to occur.

If company profitability grows at 12-13 per cent over the subsequent 12 months, led by a revival in consumption, continued capex, and easing inflation, markets would take it positively.

The place do you see the market by subsequent Diwali? Can the Nifty 50 be above 28k?

There’s a chance of seeing Nifty at these ranges. Technically, 2025 was largely a 12 months of consolidation, with markets shifting in a broader vary. If we go by historic patterns, a rally adopted by such consolidation is taken into account wholesome.

If there are not any unfavourable surprises, the Nifty 50 can very properly escape submit this consolidation and inch in the direction of the 28,000 ranges.

Supportive international liquidity, home inflows exceeding 25,000 crore a month by way of SIP, and a resilient company steadiness sheet would make this real looking.

What are the important thing dangers that buyers mustn’t overlook? Are these dangers extra exterior or inside?

The first dangers could emerge from the exterior atmosphere. International development slowdown, commerce tensions, and foreign money volatility might create non permanent outflows.

Domestically, dangers are restricted to valuation excesses in choose mid-cap shares. Total, India stays essentially stronger than most rising markets.

Contemplating the present development and inflation trajectory, do you assume the RBI can reduce charges farther from right here?

Sure, there’s room for yet one more charge reduce by December 2025. With inflation beneath 3 per cent, the RBI minutes have hinted at an accommodative coverage to help development. Repo charges might transfer down from 5.50 per cent to five.25 per cent by the top of the 12 months.

The US Fed is predicted to chop charges in October and December. How can that impression rising markets like India?

Fed cuts weaken the greenback and enhance flows in rising markets. A softer greenback reduces exterior debt price and helps commodity and fairness inflows.

For India, it might imply renewed overseas curiosity, a firmer rupee and probably elevated participation from overseas funds.

What sectors can generate alpha in Samvat 2082?

Financials, autos and energy have the potential to generate alpha. Banks can profit from robust credit score enlargement and decreased NPAs, whereas the consumption enhance will assist autos. Energy will emerge as a structural theme.

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Disclaimer: This story is for academic functions solely. The views and proposals expressed are these of the skilled, not Mint. We advise buyers to seek the advice of with licensed specialists earlier than making any funding choices, as market situations can change quickly and circumstances could differ.