After a turbulent begin to 2025 pushed by tariff shocks, geopolitical dangers, and world financial shifts, the Indian fairness market is heading into an important earnings season. The April-June quarter (Q1FY26) outcomes, alongside developments in US-India commerce negotiations, will seemingly set the tone for the remainder of the calendar yr.
All eyes on Q1 earnings
With earnings season underway, firms like HCLTech, Tech Mahindra, Axis Financial institution, ICICI Financial institution, Wipro, JSW Metal, L&T Finance, and HDFC Financial institution are anticipated to publish outcomes this week. Analysts count on regular income development and improved profitability, although headwinds persist in world demand and discretionary spending.
Mayank Mundhra, VP at Abans Monetary Providers, says: “Q1 earnings can be key to assessing company resilience. This market is favouring sensible stock-picking over sector-wide bets.”
US-India tariff talks
Commerce tensions have resurfaced with the US extending the deadline for reciprocal tariff changes to August 1, 2025. Indian officers returned from Washington earlier this month after a week-long dialogue to finalise a mini-interim commerce settlement.
Whereas the US is contemplating tariff relaxations for textiles and footwear, there are lingering considerations over a proposed 200% tariff on Indian pharma exports, a sector the place the US accounts for 40 per cent of India’s total exports.
Manish Jain of Mirae Asset notes: “The influence of tariffs just isn’t absolutely seen in Q1 earnings but. If a flat 10% tariff is imposed on Indian exports, we estimate an extra $4.5 billion responsibility burden-roughly 6 per cent of CY24 exports to the US.”
FPIs flip web sellers once more in July
Overseas Portfolio Buyers (FPIs), who have been web patrons for 3 straight months (April-June), turned web sellers in July, pulling out Rs 555 crore between July 1-11, in keeping with NSDL information.
Thus far in 2025, FPI flows stay web destructive at Rs 1.00 lakh crore, largely as a result of heavy promoting in January and February. Specialists attribute the renewed promoting to elevated valuations in Indian equities and a shift towards cheaper rising markets.
VK Vijayakumar, Chief Strategist at Geojit, mentioned: “With Indian markets recovering from March lows, FPIs are reserving income. Quick-term shifts to extra attractively priced markets are seemingly.”
Inflation information, RBI stance additionally in focus
India’s CPI and WPI inflation information, due on July 14, will provide cues for the RBI’s subsequent coverage motion. A spike in meals inflation or indicators of core inflation firming may hold charge minimize hopes at bay within the close to time period.
Ajit Mishra of Religare Broking echoed the same view, noting the efficiency hole inside sectors is widening. “Even in outperforming sectors, solely choose names are delivering. The main target ought to stay on excessive RoE, constant earnings, and money move visibility.”
Key takeaways
Q1FY26 earnings will information H2 market developments
US-India tariff deal may influence pharma, textiles, autos
FPIs web sellers in July after 3 months of inflows
Inflation information on July 14 could affect RBI coverage
Inventory-specific investing beats sectoral strategy in present market
