Picture supply: Sam Robson, The Motley Idiot UK
Tesla, it’s honest to say, has had a tough 2025 thus far. The inventory worth is up 443% over the previous 5 years, however has tumbled 36% for the reason that begin of 2025. In contrast, electrical automobile rival NIO (NYSE: NIO) is up 1% thus far this 12 months. 1% is hardly the stuff of investor goals – however it’s a lot higher than trade big Tesla has managed. So, might now be the time so as to add NIO inventory to my portfolio?
A difficult market
For now, I believe the reply is not any.
Tesla’s challenges, because the model reels from its chief govt’s excessive political profile, are partly self-inflicted. However solely partly.
The truth is that the electrical automobile market has moved on considerably from the place it was even just some years in the past.
Demand is greater. However there are additionally a number of credible electrical automobile firms promoting automobiles. That has had an impression on costs as these makers attempt to compete. In flip, revenue margins have taken successful throughout the trade.
So from NIO’s perspective, there may be each good and unhealthy information.
The excellent news is that the electrical automobile market is in development mode. The unhealthy information is that that has come on the worth of decrease revenue margins, one thing which typically tends to learn giant companies which have larger economies of scale.
As I see it, although, NIO has one other particular problem: advances in battery expertise.
Dramatically sooner claimed battery charging occasions might be a boon for rivals like BYD (and its long-term investor Warren Buffett) and Tesla. However they threaten to make NIO’s battery swapping expertise largely out of date. Thus far, that had been a key aggressive benefit.
Nonetheless some causes for hope
Nonetheless, NIO inventory has carried out markedly higher than Tesla inventory thus far this 12 months. So might my considerations be overdone?
Whereas Tesla inventory has crashed in 2025, BYD is up a storming 54%. Positive, NIO inventory isn’t performing as poorly as its US rival – however its 2025 share worth development has lagged far behind that of its native Chinese language competitor.
In the meantime, within the first quarter, BYD’s income grew 36% 12 months on 12 months to round £17.6bn. Examine that to NIO. It has not but launched first-quarter numbers, however within the fourth quarter, revenues have been round £2.0bn, a 15% year-on-year development.
Winners pulling forward
That’s not an apples-to-apples comparability, as the primary quarter of this 12 months noticed vital geopolitical danger escalation.
However clearly, NIO is much behind each BYD and Tesla by way of absolute gross sales revenues. Nonetheless, these revenues are substantial – and development charges could lag BYD badly, however are far forward of Tesla presently.
Nonetheless, a key aggressive benefit NIO has invested closely in is now beneath risk. In the meantime, it lacks the large scale of BYD and Tesla because the market consolidates.
By itself, that doesn’t essentially put me off shopping for NIO inventory, although I believe the funding case has weakened given what I discussed above.
What does put me off, nevertheless, is that whereas BYD and even Tesla stay firmly worthwhile, NIO stays firmly loss-making.
A weaker Tesla share worth doesn’t essentially assist NIO. NIO must be judged by itself deserves. Till it has confirmed it may well earn money, I can’t be investing.
