Market Overview
It was a fairly quiet week till Friday. Commerce tensions with China are hovering once more, and it despatched shares tumbling into the shut. Might we actually see 100% tariffs on China? I feel it is an exaggeration, and the most effective dip shopping for alternative in months. Be prepared. The Dow Jones Industrial Common led the promoting decrease, ending down 2.73% on the week. The S&P 500 was down 2.43% whereas the Nasdaq was off 2.53%. Gold and silver each hit new all-time highs final week, whereas bonds noticed a stable bid come via. Crude oil is getting crushed and it seems to be like we’re establishing for a terrific shopping for alternative in crypto once more.
Shares I Like
Serve Robotics (SERV) – 53% Return Potential
What’s Taking place
- Serve Robotics Inc. (NASDAQ:SERV) is a number one autonomous supply firm creating AI-powered sidewalk robots for last-mile logistics, providing traders publicity to the quickly rising robotics and automation sector with a give attention to sustainable, scalable supply options.
- The most recent quarterly report from the corporate confirmed income of $642k however a lack of $13.97 million.
- This valuation on SERV is sky-high. It does not have a lot to report by way of earnings or belongings, however they’re getting extra of their robots circulating.
- From a technical standpoint, SERV is seeking to breakout from a cup and deal with formation, which might result in an acceleration in upside momentum.
Why It is Taking place
- Serve Robotics Inc. is revolutionizing last-mile supply with its AI-powered sidewalk robots, capitalizing on the booming demand for environment friendly, eco-friendly meals companies. With income surging 46% in Q2 2025 and deliveries up 80% quarter-over-quarter, the corporate is constructing a scalable mannequin that addresses city logistics challenges, positioning it as a frontrunner within the shift towards autonomous city mobility.
- Strategic partnership with Uber Eats is unlocking explosive development alternatives. The multi-year deal to deploy 2,000 Gen3 robots throughout main U.S. cities, together with a contemporary growth into Chicago’s metro space, creates a strong distribution community for Serve’s know-how, driving increased utilization and paving the best way for nationwide adoption within the $160 billion autonomous meals supply market by 2030.
- Large market potential in autonomous logistics fuels Serve’s long-term narrative. Backed by Ark Make investments’s forecast of an $860 billion alternative in robotics by 2030, the corporate’s give attention to low-emission, AI-driven options faucets into rising shopper preferences for sustainable supply, with plans for $60-80 million in annualized income as soon as its full fleet is operational.
- Backing from tech giants strengthens Serve’s credibility and sources. With Uber Applied sciences and Nvidia as key traders, the corporate features entry to cutting-edge experience and capital—evidenced by $167 million raised in 2024—to gas speedy scaling, reinforcing its story as a high-potential innovator on the intersection of AI, robotics, and on a regular basis companies.
- Geographic growth and fleet development sign accelerating momentum. From Los Angeles roots to new markets like Atlanta and Chicago, Serve’s on-track deployment of two,000 robots by year-end 2025, together with the milestone of its 1,000th unit, builds a strong operational footprint that captures growing city demand and units the stage for worldwide alternatives.
- Analyst Rankings:
- Wedbush: Outperform
- Cantor Fitzgerald: Obese
- Northland Capital Markets: Outperform
My Motion Plan (53% Return Potential)
- I’m bullish on SERV above $12.00-$12.50. My upside goal is $23.00-$24.00.
ViaSat (VSAT) – 38% Return Potential
What’s Taking place
- Viasat Inc. (NASDAQ:VSAT) is a number one world communications firm offering high-capacity satellite tv for pc broadband and wi-fi networking companies, providing traders publicity to the quickly rising satellite tv for pc communications and connectivity sector with a give attention to high-speed web and safe options for shopper, business, and authorities markets.
- The most recent quarterly report confirmed income of $1.17 billion and earnings of $23.09 million.
- Valuation is stable on this inventory. Value-to-Gross sales is at 0.93, EV to EBITDA is at 8.47, and Guide Worth is 33.98.
- At a technical degree, VSAT is coiling up properly inside an ascending triangle, which factors to a continuation of the continued uptrend.
Why It is Taking place
- Viasat Inc. is poised for explosive development within the satellite tv for pc broadband enviornment, with the upcoming ViaSat-3 F2 launch scheduled for October 2025 set to greater than double its world bandwidth capability. This milestone builds on the transformative 2023 Inmarsat acquisition, increasing Viasat’s footprint to serve underserved areas and industries, making a narrative of turning into the go-to supplier for high-speed connectivity in distant and cell environments.
- Deep-rooted authorities and protection contracts anchor Viasat’s stability and income range. As a key provider to U.S. army and intelligence companies, the corporate advantages from long-term, high-margin offers that present a defensive moat in opposition to market volatility, whereas enabling innovation in safe communications—positioning Viasat as an indispensable companion in nationwide safety and world protection initiatives.
- Strategic joint ventures in direct-to-device companies open huge new markets for Viasat. The September 2025 Equatys partnership with Space42 grants entry to the world’s largest coordinated spectrum block, paving the best way for seamless satellite-to-smartphone connectivity and tapping into the exploding demand for ubiquitous cell broadband, particularly in rising economies.
- Strong aviation and maritime expansions gas Viasat’s business momentum. Current rollouts just like the 300+ NexusWave installations with Pulsar Worldwide and offers with main airways improve in-flight and at-sea connectivity, capitalizing on the post-pandemic journey increase and positioning Viasat to dominate the $10 billion+ mobility connectivity sector.
- Path to monetary turnaround and money movement positivity strengthens Viasat’s long-term story. With anticipated free money movement breakeven later in 2025 and a $568 million milestone cost in 2026, alongside the potential spin-off of its worthwhile protection unit, the corporate is shedding legacy burdens to unlock worth and drive shareholder returns in a high-growth satellite tv for pc ecosystem.
- Analyst Rankings:
- JP Morgan: Impartial
- Needham: Purchase
- William Blair: Outperform
My Motion Plan (38% Return Potential)
- I’m bullish on VSAT above $26.00-$27.00. My upside goal is $45.00-$46.00.
Thoughts Drugs (MNMD) – 19% Return Potential
What’s Taking place
- Thoughts Drugs Inc. (NASDAQ:MNMD) is a number one clinical-stage biopharmaceutical firm creating psychedelic-inspired therapies for psychological well being and neurological problems, providing traders publicity to the quickly rising psychopharmacology and psychological well being remedy sector with a give attention to modern, evidence-based options for nervousness and dependancy.
- There isn’t any income on MNMD but. The most recent quarterly report confirmed a lack of $42.74 million.
- Valuation in MNMD is hard on account of its monetary state of affairs. It has a Guide Worth of two.43. It is a very speculative play.
- From a charting viewpoint, MNMD broke out from the saucer. It is already accelerating to the upside, displaying the bullish potential.
Why It is Taking place
- Thoughts Drugs (MindMed) Inc. is pioneering the psychedelic drugs revolution, with its lead candidate MM120 (a refined LSD formulation) advancing via three pivotal Part 3 trials for generalized nervousness dysfunction (GAD) and main depressive dysfunction (MDD). The promising Part 2b outcomes and a strong money runway into 2027 place MindMed as a frontrunner in addressing the rising psychological well being disaster, tapping right into a multi-billion-dollar marketplace for modern mind well being therapies.
- Rising political and social momentum for psychedelic therapies enhances MindMed’s development narrative. Bipartisan discussions with the U.S. Division of Veterans Affairs about increasing entry to psychedelic therapies for veterans sign potential regulatory tailwinds, boosting the corporate’s prospects for sooner market entry and broader societal acceptance of its therapies.
- Strategic expertise acquisition and management power underscore MindMed’s dedication to execution. The appointment of Brandi Roberts as CFO and Matt Wiley as Chief Business Officer, alongside inducement grants to draw prime expertise, displays a centered technique to construct a world-class workforce able to navigating medical and business milestones, reinforcing investor confidence in its long-term imaginative and prescient.
- Groundbreaking analysis on psychological well being wants elevates MindMed’s societal impression. A 2025 research offered at Psych Congress revealed almost 50% of extreme GAD sufferers expertise day by day suicidal ideation, spotlighting the pressing want for modern therapies like MM120. This positions MindMed as a mission-driven firm addressing crucial gaps in psychological well being care, resonating with socially acutely aware traders.
My Motion Plan (19% Return Potential)
- I’m bullish on MNMD above $9.50-$10.00. My upside goal is $14.00-$15.00.
Market-Transferring Catalysts for the Week Forward
The New Financial system
Synthetic Intelligence. Nuclear. Quantum. Crypto. The world is altering sooner than ever, and the markets are reflecting these unbelievable alternatives left and proper. I see a lot anger in the direction of the “bubbly” value motion of a few of these names, however if you happen to handle threat correctly, they actually provide the most effective alternatives to earn a living.
I fully perceive and sympathize with the truth that the valuations in lots of of those corporations are outrageous. Lots of them do not even have income or earnings. However my sincere response to that? So what.
Markets do not transfer primarily based on details, purpose, or frequent sense. The earlier you settle for this fact, the sooner your buying and selling outcomes will enhance. Markets transfer primarily based on feelings – worry, greed, euphoria, panic. We have seen this time and time once more all through historical past. Handle threat correctly so you can also make these mini-fortunes in bubbles.
Sector & Trade Energy
It was a little bit of a battle between risk-on and risk-off sectors final week. Tech (NYSE:XLK) and utilities (NYSE:XLU) had been neck and neck, however how a lot of the utility panorama is rising now on account of development from AI versus financial slowdown considerations?
By far and away, we nonetheless see the tech sector (XLK) because the top-performer because the April 7 low. This, in of itself, could be very bullish. We’re speaking a couple of 25% level unfold between tech and the second-best performer in communications (NYSE:XLC). That is enormous.
In the meantime, the entire defensively-oriented sectors like shopper staples (NYSE:XLP) and healthcare (NYSE:XLV) are nonetheless hanging out close to the underside of the pack. Let shares chop round some within the coming days to see if the expansion sectors can regain some momentum.
| 1 week | 3 Weeks | 13 Weeks | 26 Weeks |
| Utilities | Utilities | Utilities | Expertise |
Editor’s Observe: Close to-term ache. Lengthy-term acquire
The Celebration’s Simply Getting Began (Sector ETF: SMH/QQQ)
It is time to test again in on maybe an important ratio for this whole AI-driven bull market proper now. We’re trying on the chart between semiconductors (NYSE:SMH) and the Nasdaq 100 (NYSE:QQQ).
The AI revolution is being powered by semiconductors, so it makes complete logical sense that we might search for SMH to outperform QQQ as an indicator that the state of the AI commerce is in stable well being.
I am now monitoring the mega wedge sample on this ratio chart. This factors to yet one more spherical of accelerating upside momentum on this ratio, if and when it breaks above the higher trendline of the sample. This implies there’s nonetheless cash to be made within the chip commerce.
Worldwide Cash Flows (Sector ETF: VGK/EEM)
European markets have been all the fashion this 12 months, as worldwide shares lastly acquired a style of the motion that U.S. markets have been experiencing for the previous decade and a half. However now, as we’re within the early levels of This autumn, will Europe nonetheless be the world’s sizzling market?
I am trying on the ratio between European shares (NYSE:VGK) and rising markets (NYSE:EEM) under. Since Could, rising markets have really outperformed European shares by a reasonably vast margin, and we may simply be getting began.
I am conserving an in depth watch on this creating rounding prime formation. We’re testing help now, and if it breaks, then the percentages of an enormous shift away from European shares into rising markets is simply going to speed up. This ties into our China bull thesis going ahead too, since EEM has lots of publicity to China.
Watch these Junk Spreads (Sector ETF: HYG/IEI)
For all of the fuss on the market about shares being overvalued, and the way the subsequent monetary disaster is correct across the nook, we’re seeing fairly a little bit of stability within the bond market. I am trying on the spreads between junk bonds (NYSE:HYG) and 3-7 12 months Treasuries (NYSE:IEI) this week.
This ratio gives a key method to measure the market’s liquidity circumstances. Principally, if junk bonds preserve outperforming Treasuries, and this ratio is climbing, then all is nicely in liquidity land. The alternative can also be true – if this ratio is falling – search some kind of safety.
At present, it seems to be like liquidity circumstances are about to enhance much more. The ratio is hanging out round resistance of an enormous saucer formation. If and when it clears, search for market drops to change into much more boring.
My Take:
On the finish of the day, the bond market goes to inform you much more concerning the well being of the general market in comparison with some random pundit on-line. It appears that evidently each different day, there’s a warning of an imminent popping of the AI bubble, however ratios like these merely do not help it.
Junk bonds commerce like shares. If liquidity points come up, they’re the primary that get hit throughout the bond complicated. In different phrases, so long as you appear them persevering with to rise, preserve tuning out the noise and give attention to what the market is saying.
Cryptocurrency
I wish to pivot a bit this week and return to Bitcoin. It has been some time since we appeared on the legacy cryptocurrency, however it’s contemporary off of latest all-time highs, which confirms to us that the development continues to be very a lot in favor of the bulls.
I am conserving a really shut watch on a brand new bullish technical growth. One other wedge sample has shaped on the day by day chart for Bitcoin, and costs are consolidating slightly below resistance. A break above there would open the door for an additional leg increased within the bull market.
The sample is projecting a rally as much as the 138,000-140,000 zone, however we’ll must see a decisive shut above 124,000-125,000 first. The trail of least resistance in Bitcoin stays increased as long as costs maintain above 110,000-112,000.
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