🔍 Key Hyperlinks
📈 Morning Macro Shock – PPI Shock
The morning’s calm was shattered when Producer Worth Index (PPI) MoM got here in at +0.9% vs. the anticipated +0.2% — the most well liked studying since March 2022.
PPI YoY: 3.3% vs. 2.5% anticipated (Prev. 2.3%)
Core PPI YoY: 3.7% vs. 3.0% anticipated
Over half the surge got here from closing demand commerce companies margins, up 2.0%.
End result?
📉 Fed charge reduce bets for September had been rapidly dialed again as merchants braced for the “inflation pendulum” swinging the opposite means.
⚔️ Market Battle Strains
Early Motion: ES tagged the D-level and bounced, however sellers remained prepared above 6470–6475.
Large Gamma Strike: Detected on the morning lows, with bulls needing to reclaim the Prior Low (6461) to stabilize.
Bears’ Aim: Push by means of for deeper draw back; renewed promoting anticipated at 6470–6475.
Cycle Day 2 Rhythm: Favored promoting bounces, however bulls stored swiping the cleaning soap bar away from the bears.
💬 Dealer Chatter Highlights
Gamma & 0DTE – A number of merchants mentioned the elevated affect of choices flows on intraday futures value motion in comparison with simply 4–5 years in the past.
Comparative Information Factors – CPI overshoot earlier within the week (+70 pts after preliminary transfer) famous as a doable analog.
CL (Crude Oil) Facet Quest – Similar setups as ES work on CL utilizing 250-tick charts, however execution nonetheless journeys up some merchants.
📊 Key Technical Ranges
Prior Low: 6461 – First reclaim goal for bulls.
Resistance: 6475/77 – Preliminary promote zone.
Help: Open Vary midpoint 6466.
Upside Set off: Clearing 6482 opens door to 6489.
🏁 Afternoon Tape
Noon: “No good cause to be buying and selling… whole crap rhythms.”
Late Session: Bulls took management, closing close to highs of the day forward of OPEX Friday.
MOC: Small $300m promote imbalance (“Mice Nutz”).
🎯 PTG Takeaway
A warmer-than-expected PPI lit the morning fuse, shaking rate-cut optimism and prompting a tug-of-war between gamma-propped lows and inflation-fueled sellers. By the shut, bulls had their means, however with OPEX tomorrow, the true fireworks may come within the morning session.
Keep versatile — pendulums swing each methods.
