£10,000 invested in Vodafone shares in 2000 would now be value…

On 18 January 2000, the BBC reported that Vodafone (LSE:VOD) shares had surged 6.7% on optimism that the group was going to achieve success in its £79bn takeover bid for Mannesmann, a German conglomerate with a big telecoms enterprise.

This pushed the group’s inventory market valuation to £109.1bn, which was sufficient to elevate it above BP. Simply 15 years after it was shaped, it had grow to be the UK’s Most worthy firm. How instances have modified. At the moment (20 August), it’s the thirty first greatest.

However its outstanding development story didn’t finish there. The corporate went on to finish the takeover and, at one level, was the world’s fourth-largest listed enterprise.

Now, Vodafone has a market cap of £21.1bn. This implies a £10,000 funding made on the flip of the century would now be value £1,934. After all, this ignores the worth of any dividends obtained.

Nonetheless, it’s the long run that basically issues. And though I don’t see it changing into the FTSE 100’s Most worthy firm once more, I believe there’s some proof to counsel its turnaround plan is beginning to work.

Trying forward

To assist fight falling return on capital, Vodafone’s been promoting off varied underperforming divisions and non-core belongings. The intention is to create a leaner, extra environment friendly, group. Many of the money obtained from these disposals has been used to pay down its debt because it’s concentrating on a leverage ratio of two.25-2.75 instances EBITDAaL (earnings earlier than curiosity, tax, depreciation and amortisation, after leases). That is in step with different telecoms teams which have additionally needed to borrow closely to pay for his or her costly networks and licences.

And I believed its outcomes for the quarter ended 31 March have been encouraging. Trying again over the previous 5 quarters, group service income grew at its quickest fee. Africa (particularly Egypt) and Türkiye are doing significantly nicely and its business division is performing strongly.

In June, it obtained regulatory approval to merge its UK enterprise with Three. 

Extra work to be finished

However analysts look like extra cautious than me. Their common 12-month worth goal is 77.7p suggesting the group’s shares are presently 11% overvalued.

They might be involved that income in Germany is constant to fall. This stays the group’s largest market – acquired as a part of the Mannesmann deal – and it has been badly affected by a change within the regulation, limiting the bundling of contracts in condominium blocks.

Or they may wish to see additional proof that it could develop once more. For the yr ending 31 March 2026 (FY26), the group’s predicting EBITDAaL of €11bn-£11.3bn and adjusted free money circulate of €2.6bn-€2.8bn. These are similar to its FY25 numbers and never typical of the expansion anticipated from a FTSE 100 firm.

My view

However I believe it’s entering into the fitting course. Since February, its share worth has risen by greater than a 3rd.

Regardless of its latest woes, it retains a precious model that churns out round €2.5bn of free money yearly. And although its dividend was reduce by 50% earlier this yr, it’s nonetheless excessive sufficient to place it within the prime quarter of FTSE 100 yielders. Additionally, as a service supplier, it’s more likely to emerge comparatively unscathed from a worldwide commerce warfare.

That’s why I imagine it’s a inventory to contemplate.