Picture supply: Britvic (copyright Evan Doherty)
One of many extra compelling funding concepts within the London marketplace for me over latest years has been JD Sports activities (LSE: JD). But regardless of my enthusiasm, the Sports activities share worth has fallen 34% over the previous 5 years and now sits in pennies. In the meantime, the JD Sports activities dividend yield is simply 1%. That’s measly, given the FTSE 100 yield in the meanwhile is 3.4%.
However I reckon the dividend could soar in coming years. Right here is why.
Dividend coverage has modified
For years, the dividend was small. In 2023, for instance, it was lower than a penny a share for the complete yr.
However over the previous couple of years, the corporate has grown its dividend quick. It now stands at 1p per share, a 25% improve over two years. The yield remains to be modest, although.
The corporate has set out its capital allocation priorities and people embody a progressive dividend. That merely implies that the corporate goals to develop its dividend per share annually, with out specifying a specific goal.
Nevertheless, because the previous two years present, present administration is open to double-digit proportion annual development within the dividend per share.
Money technology potential may assist dividend development
These priorities additionally embody utilizing surplus money to enhance returns.
The corporate launched a £100m share buyback programme earlier this yr. It introduced at the moment (27 August) that it’s planning to spend one other £100m shopping for again its personal shares.
That displays JD’s expectation of decrease capital expenditure than earlier than, partially as a result of lack of a mergers and acquisitions pipeline following a number of sizeable offers lately.
The profit or in any other case of share buybacks to shareholders stays a contested matter. Personally I’d fairly JD use spare money to develop its dividend quicker, for instance.
However the newest buyback announcement underlines the purpose that the corporate has a extremely money generative enterprise mannequin on the working degree. If decreased acquisition and store opening spend assist cut back non-operating money outflows, that might imply JD continues to throw off vital portions of extra money.
Final yr, for instance, the dividend value the corporate £52m. That appears fairly modest, at simply over half the price of the most recent share buyback programme alone.
In different phrases, if JD had determined to not launch the most recent buyback and spent the cash on dividends as an alternative, this yr’s payout per share may virtually have tripled.
There may very well be extra to return
The board has opted not to try this, as an alternative going for the buyback.
Tripling a dividend is uncommon. However keep in mind that even when this occurred, the dividend yield would nonetheless sit beneath the FTSE 100 common.
A robust rise may additionally present a fillip for the share worth, as it could make the funding case for the retailer extra enticing to income-focused buyers.
Over time, then, I see potential for the corporate to make use of its sturdy free money flows to assist sizeable dividend development.
That presumes the money flows stay sturdy. In the present day’s buying and selling replace confirmed first half like-for-like gross sales falling year-on-year. Key product traces being withdrawn from manufacturing is an ongoing problem to the corporate’s footwear gross sales.
However I just like the long-term development and revenue prospects – and plan to hold on to my shares. I believe it a share for buyers to think about.
