Picture supply: Getty Photographs
It’s unusual to assume that simply final yr, traders had been celebrating the FTSE 100 breaking by way of 8,000 factors. Now sitting above 9,500, it appears nearly inevitable that the index will smash the historic 10,000 mark.
However can it nonetheless occur in 2025, with the yr quickly drawing to a detailed? I made a decision to see what the consultants assume.
Cautious optimism
The Footsie’s been on a roll this yr. It broke 8,800 factors in February and crossed 9,000 in July. As October started, the index surged once more, touching a brand new document above 9,400 factors. Momentum, valuation power and broad sector resilience have helped push it to contemporary highs.
Some commentators even recommend it may attain 10,000 by Christmas if present momentum holds. Nonetheless, few main analysts are that bullish. Citigroup lately nudged its mid-2026 FTSE 100 goal from 9,300 to 9,700 — a optimistic sign, however nonetheless shy of 5 figures.
Development-based forecasts paint the same image. Many fashions recommend an end-of-2025 degree close to 9,638, with longer-term projections stretching in direction of 11,800. The Economic system Forecast Company, for instance, sees potential for 11,600-13,347 by mid-2027, implying loads of progress forward even when 10,000 proves elusive this yr.
So whereas optimism’s constructing, the consensus stays cautious. The broader market might have one other leg of earnings progress or a powerful increase from the commodities and monetary sectors to tip over that symbolic milestone.
Driving the optimism
One FTSE 100 inventory that’s doing its half to raise the index is Fresnillo (LSE: FRES). The Mexican-based treasured metals miner has been one in every of 2025’s standout performers, hovering an astonishing 280% since January.
In its newest H1 2025 earnings outcomes, introduced on 30 June, it posted a 34.84% yr on yr income increase to £3.05bn. Earnings did even higher, up 78.48% to £351.92m, giving it a internet margin of 11.54%.
Rising gold and silver costs have been a key catalyst. With gold lately topping $4,000 per ounce, the corporate’s revenue margins have expanded sharply. Now, its ahead price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio sits round 23.7 – properly above the FTSE common. But its price-to-earnings progress (PEG) ratio of 0.61 hints that earnings are holding tempo with valuation.
Nonetheless, there are dangers. Gold and silver are traditional safe-haven belongings that are likely to rise when traders fear about inflation, debt or geopolitical instability. Ought to confidence return to world markets or rates of interest rise quicker than anticipated, demand may cool shortly – pulling treasured metals, and Fresnillo’s share value, down with it.
Regardless of this, I feel it stays a inventory value contemplating. It’s a powerful enterprise with environment friendly operations, low manufacturing prices and a strong stability sheet. Even when commodity costs ease, its long-term fundamentals look strong.
My take
The FTSE 100’s march towards 10,000 won’t occur in 2025 – however it feels nearer than ever. With heavyweight shares like Fresnillo serving to to gas momentum and earnings progress returning throughout the board, the index seems well-positioned for regular progress.
I feel affected person traders may see 10,000 in sight earlier than lengthy, even when they’ve to attend just a little previous New Yr’s Eve.
