The affect of President Donald Trump’s tariffs continues to tear by means of the logistics and transportation sectors, with main ports experiencing a steep drop in imports after data had been set earlier this 12 months, and volumes all through the provision chain rolling over.
For the primary time in 2025, charges for van, flatbed, and refrigerated hundreds in October had been all decrease on each a month-over-month and year-over-year foundation, in accordance with the DAT Truckload Quantity Index.
“Freight volumes within the third quarter and October replicate what we’re seeing within the broader items financial system, with shippers drawing on stock constructed up earlier within the 12 months to scale back their publicity to tariffs and weak shopper demand,” stated Ken Adamo, DAT chief of Analytics. “Because of this, the standard peak vacation transport season appears to be like nearly non-existent this 12 months,” Adamo stated.
Van truckloads had been down 3% in comparison with September, and 11% 12 months over 12 months. Refrigerated truckloads had been down 2% month over month, and seven% 12 months over 12 months. Flatbed truckloads had been down 4% month over month and three% 12 months over 12 months. The decreased stage of dry van and temp-controlled hundreds which might be shifting now by means of the provision chain are items shifting from distribution facilities to retailers. The causes of the commerce decline vary from weak spot in housing and manufacturing to vitality prices, and shippers pulling ahead imports earlier within the 12 months and constructing inventories to scale back tariff impacts.
The most recent U.S. Census Bureau knowledge, launched Wednesday after a greater than month-long delay because of the authorities shutdown, confirmed a big decline in imports within the month of August after extra tariffs went into place, $18.4 billion lower than the extent of July imports. The import drop contributed to a 23%-plus decline within the nation’s commerce deficit, in accordance with Census.
Current freight container tracker knowledge shared by the nation’s second-busiest port, the Port of Lengthy Seaside, reveals that Trump’s tariffs will proceed to chip away at ocean freight heading to the U.S.
“You are wanting on the 16 % lower in Chinese language imports coming to the USA,” stated Mario Cordero, CEO of the Port of Lengthy Seaside. “The lower is throughout the board,” Cordero stated.
The Port of Los Angeles additionally recorded a dip in container volumes in October.
Electronics, furnishings, and toys have been recognized on this freight pullback, whereas U.S. grain exports have additionally been hit by commerce coverage, with China rising its buy of soybeans from Brazil throughout the commerce warfare. As a part of an easing of commerce tensions, China did lately commit to purchasing extra U.S. soybeans.
Stacks of leaning transport containers are seen behind a Portuguese flag on a vessel moored on the Port of Lengthy Seaside in Lengthy Seaside, California, on September 9, 2025.
Patrick T. Fallon | AFP | Getty Photos
The lower in containers follows a interval of commerce frontloading throughout which retailers and producers introduced in freight early as they tried to navigate a number of tariff deadlines and price modifications, resulting in huge jumps in port visitors. International containers to the West Coast are up 10% year-over-year, in accordance with Vizion. Containers from China to the U.S. West Coast are additionally up 4.6% year-over-year, with the commerce route the preferred for Chinese language items coming to the U.S. as a result of it has the shortest journey time.
East Coast ports, together with Houston, have seen a modest 2 % enhance 12 months over 12 months in container volumes. China containers, nonetheless, are down 12 %.
“The excellent news is we’re nonetheless within the black,” Cordero stated. Whereas he stated a fourth quarter decline was anticipated, what comes subsequent is pivotal. “It stays to be seen, the resilience of the American shopper and their spending exercise, and the following two months might be actually telling concerning the diminishment of that development,” he stated.
“We at the moment are forecasting practically a 16.6 % year-over-year decline for U.S. imports in December, after a 12% decline in Q3,” stated Ben Tracy, vice chairman of strategic enterprise growth at real-time container monitoring platform, Vizion. “There is no such thing as a bounce again in sight,” Tracy stated.
Retailers and producers have put a pause on sturdy freight orders due to fears of a shopper pullback as a consequence of meals and shopper product inflation. The image from retail earnings this week has been blended, with downbeat studies from Residence Depot and Goal however sturdy outcomes from Walmart, which stated extra customers are centered on worth, and extra of it gross sales are coming from upper-income customers.
“For the primary time since March 2023, we’re seeing month-to-month import volumes persistently fall under 2 million TEUs — this is not only a seasonal dip or short-term correction,” stated Kyle Henderson, CEO of Vizion. “The information reveals this can be a structural items recession pushed by the convergence of tariff uncertainty, frozen housing markets, and a elementary shift in shopper spending away from bodily items,” he stated.
“When furnishings imports collapse 33 % and toy imports — which traditionally surge 40-50 % forward of the vacations — barely rise 17 % that tells you retailers are betting on the weakest shopper season in years,” he stated.
Vizion knowledge is displaying container utilization has dropped from one hundred pc to 91 %.
“Together with spot charges at two-year lows, and we’re staring down a decade of overcapacity. This is not a quantity blip — it is a main reset of freight demand fundamentals,” Henderson stated. “The freight market is already feeling the ache,” he added.
Containers set to reach at U.S. ports in December 2025 are 2.19 million twenty-foot-equivalent items vs. 2.62 million TEUs final December, in accordance with Vizion, with the quantity lack of over 430,000 TEUs inflicting a knock-on impact all through the provision chain.
Along with the railroad, vans, and warehouses, which generate income from the motion and storage of freight, port labor can be impacted.
Much less freight means a decreased want for each day longshoremen to maneuver the containers.
“Labor is completely involved,” stated Mario Cordero, CEO of the Port of Lengthy Seaside. “It goes again once more to job decreases, job anxiousness. … When you may have decreased quantity, you are going to have an effect on the roles within the provide chain, actually on the docks right here on the Port of Lengthy Seaside,” he stated.
The Worldwide Longshoremen’s Affiliation, the port labor answerable for the motion of freight, receives a yearly container bonus on the quantity of freight moved.
Along with the China tariffs, tariffs on India have collapsed the freight market servicing this commerce, in accordance with Vizion. The International Commerce Analysis Initiative reported an enormous 37.5% drop in general Indian export worth to the U.S. between Might and September 2025. India’s exports have a 50% tariff.
