Ramdeo Agrawal’s Daring Forecast: What markets will do earlier than subsequent Diwali

Ramdeo Agrawal’s Daring Forecast: Indian markets may even see regular efficiency until subsequent Diwali, with banking and consumption sectors prone to drive progress, mentioned Ramdeo Agrawal, Chairman and Co-founder of Motilal Oswal Monetary Companies, in a particular dialog with Anil Singhvi, Managing Editor of Zee Enterprise.

Agrawal mentioned the market might not ship outsized beneficial properties within the subsequent few months however stays structurally constructive. “If somebody says the market received’t rise for six–8 months, it doesn’t matter a lot. The bottom is robust,” he mentioned, noting that annualized returns might average barely however stay wholesome.

He added that overseas traders are once more displaying curiosity in India as a part of the worldwide “AI play” theme, at the same time as dangers from potential U.S. market bubbles stay. “The chance just isn’t within the bubble forming however in it bursting,” Agrawal cautioned.

US tariffs and commerce dynamics

Agrawal mentioned India’s near-term problem comes from excessive U.S. tariffs however expects reduction quickly. “Commerce discussions between Prime Minister Modi and President Trump have been constructive. Some tariff rest might occur any time,” he added.

He additionally highlighted that world sentiment towards India is enhancing, mirrored in latest FII shopping for and rising NAVs throughout funds.

On the home entrance, Agrawal mentioned banks and financials stay robust. “Earnings estimates have already been revised down. Now, outcomes are holding properly, and even festive demand is strong,” he famous.
Client spending is anticipated to choose up with charge cuts, tax advantages, and authorities assist. “Public has extra money in hand, and this can mirror in consumption progress,” he mentioned.

Discussing e-commerce and digital corporations, Agrawal mentioned these companies have matured from loss-making to profit-generating fashions. “Many of those corporations have survived intense competitors and constructed robust franchises. The way in which Indians purchase, make investments, and eat has structurally modified,” he defined.

Agrawal expressed a cautious view on IT corporations, saying their income progress stays restricted. “International demand is gradual, and complete quantity progress is low. For an financial system rising 7–8 per cent, IT sector progress needs to be higher,” he mentioned.

When requested about gold and silver’s outlook, Agrawal clarified, “I’m an fairness fund supervisor, however personally, I maintain gold in my world fund.”

He defined that central banks are accumulating gold as an anti-dollar hedge, not like silver. “Central banks purchased over 1,100–1,200 tonnes of gold final 12 months in comparison with simply 300–400 tonnes a decade in the past. Silver can’t be hoarded the identical approach,” he mentioned.

He known as silver “poor man’s gold” and added that gold stays the actual hedge towards world uncertainty.