U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to the media throughout a tour of the Federal Reserve Board constructing, which is presently present process renovations, in Washington, D.C., U.S., July 24, 2025.
Kent Nishimura | Reuters
I believe most would agree that the information cycle has been relentless for many of 2025, however sure tales do appear a bit “Groundhog Day” in the intervening time.
Earlier this month, I wrote in regards to the conundrum dealing with the newsroom over the way to strategy President Donald Trump’s then-trade discuss deadline of July 9. Now, on the finish of the month, we discover ourselves in the same place, however this time the date we’re all watching is August 1.
Why? As soon as once more, it is one other deadline for international locations throughout the globe to try to agree a commerce truce with the US, with the European Union specifically focus this time spherical.
Debate within the newsroom resurfaces … when is a deadline not a deadline?
The week has develop into even trickier to foretell, with talks between the U.S. and China now taking heart stage in Stockholm on Monday and Tuesday — doubtlessly additional complicating the image for Europe.
A U.S. commerce settlement with the European Union has appeared tantalizingly shut, with CNBC’s Silvia Amaro reporting {that a} 15% baseline tariff price is the base-case state of affairs, in response to an EU diplomat. These stories drove inventory markets throughout Europe and the U.S. increased final week.
On Friday, nevertheless, Trump informed reporters there was solely a “50-50 likelihood” of a deal.
As CNBC’s Holly Ellyatt explains, the EU is preserving its so-called “commerce bazooka” — or Anti Coercion Instrument — heat in case an settlement is just not reached by the August deadline.
Earnings, progress and inflation
The company world is crying out for an settlement, piling strain on the European Union to place an finish to the uncertainty. Puma, VW, Michelin and different corporates throughout Europe have downgraded their outlooks citing the influence of tariffs and the continuing strain the restrictions are placing on these companies.
Puma shares
On the info entrance, GDP progress charges for France, Spain, Germany and Italy will likely be launched on Wednesday, offering perception into the broader influence of the market uncertainty.
Final week, the tough financial circumstances noticed the European Central Financial institution go for a hawkish maintain of the benchmark price at 2%, with President Christine Lagarde saying the ECB is “in a superb place to carry and watch how dangers develop over the following few months.”
And so Friday August 1st will likely be an important date for market individuals and corporates (and the newsroom)… till it is not.
