The bike-taxi platform has entered the meals supply enterprise, charging eating places commissions practically half of what Zomato and Swiggy do. That single transfer has already jolted investor sentiment. Shares of Swiggy and its listed guardian, Everlasting, slid 2–3% within the earlier session and fell one other 1% at present, as traders absorbed the information of Rapido’s entry.
Elara Capital’s Karan Taurani didn’t maintain again: “Rapido may problem steady take-rates and profitability of the incumbents,” he mentioned, warning that whereas Rapido’s lack of a devoted fleet could influence supply expertise in a market obsessive about sub-30-minute success, its rising scale may nonetheless disrupt the established order.
Rapido’s fee mannequin is a flat 8–15%, far beneath the 21–22% charges charged by Zomato and Swiggy. This pricing hole not solely threatens to lift rider earnings but in addition cut back supply prices — a double whammy for incumbents used to commanding premium take-rates.
Elara’s sensitivity evaluation means that even a 200 bps drop in income development or a ten% compression in valuation a number of for Everlasting’s meals supply enterprise may drag the goal worth down 6%, from Rs 300 to Rs 282.
“Rapido’s sharp scale-up may danger the steady operational setting,” Taurani added, noting that Zomato and Swiggy’s meals supply segments at the moment are decade-old, mature companies aiming for five% adjusted EBITDA margins.
The Rapido Benefit
In contrast to ONDC, Ola, or Thrive, Rapido brings critical logistics muscle. With 4 million riders clocking 3–3.5 million every day rides, it already dwarfs Zomato’s and Swiggy’s fleets (0.44 million and 0.53 million, respectively). These riders function with idle time that may be simply redirected to meals supply with out recent capex—boosting utilization and trimming prices.
Additional, Rapido’s ‘Captain’s App’ goals to consolidate rides, parcels, and meals into one job record, optimizing distance and maximizing rider earnings by way of dynamic algorithmic assignments. The corporate has additionally gained early expertise delivering meals through ONDC, giving it a operating begin.
With a latest Rs 241 crore ($29 million) fundraise in December 2024, valuing it at $1.1 billion (whole increase to this point: $559 million), Rapido could not require the form of heavy advertising spend that outlined the early years of meals tech in India. For context, Zomato spent over Rs 3,300 crore ($400 million) on promoting and promotion between FY20–22 to construct out its platform.
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Market Saturation and Structural Limits
Nonetheless, scaling gained’t be straightforward. The penetration of chain eating places in India is simply 5%, in comparison with 25–29% in developed markets, which limits take-rate enlargement. Moreover, the expansion fee in on-line meals supply has cooled, dropping to fifteen–16% YoY from a blistering ~40% CAGR between CY18–23.
That plateau has stored investor focus sharp. Morgan Stanley, in a report final week, initiated protection on Swiggy with an Chubby ranking and a goal worth of Rs 405, citing improved execution and whole addressable market (TAM) enlargement in fast commerce.
The agency expects Swiggy to develop its gross order worth (GOV) at a 63% CAGR between FY25–28, regaining some misplaced share, although it nonetheless lags Zomato by ~15% in market share and by two years on adjusted EBITDA.
Morgan Stanley additionally valued Swiggy’s meals supply phase at about 52% of Everlasting’s, reinforcing how tightly the 2 giants are being in contrast—and the way even a small crack may ripple throughout valuations.
Whereas execution stays the massive query mark for Rapido, its aggressive pricing, sturdy logistics spine, and present person base may push Zomato and Swiggy right into a nook—the place measured profitability could have to offer method to market defence.
