US tariff uncertainties are more likely to push gold costs to Rs 87,000- Rs 90,000 within the first half of the calendar yr 2025 (January- June), in accordance with a report by ICICI Financial institution International Markets.
At present, the gold costs are at round Rs 83,410 per 10 grams for 22-carat and Rs 90,990 per 10 grams for 24-carat, publicly accessible information confirmed.
The report added that the uncertainties arising as a result of tariffs will make sure the investment-related demand for gold is in place.
Starting on April 2, the Trump administration intends to implement reciprocal tariffs on buying and selling companions as a part of the “Honest and Reciprocal Plan”.
In India, the native gold costs rose by 4 per cent up to now month, reflecting the worldwide market development and an appreciation of two per cent in rupee phrases towards the US greenback.
“Going ahead, native gold costs are anticipated to commerce with an upside bias within the INR 87,000 per ten grams to Rs 90,000 per ten grams vary in 1H2025 and transferring to the Rs 94,000 per ten grams to the Rs 96,000 per ten grams vary in 2H2025,” the report added.
The report anticipated that the gold costs within the international markets might be within the vary of USD 3200 per ounce to USD 3400 per ounce stage by December 2025.
Moreover, the US Federal Reserve’s potential determination to decrease rates of interest in 2025 and 2026 may make gold extra engaging, as decrease US yields could help gold demand, the report added.
Central banks might also proceed to diversify their reserves by holding extra gold, which may preserve costs regular for the long run, as per the report.
“Elevated ranges of gold costs look like weighing on jewelry demand, which labored to tug gold imports to their lowest stage up to now 11 months, at USD 2.3bn, reflecting a 14 per cent MoM decline and a 63 per cent YoY decline. Demand ought to decide up, responding to the festive associated seasonal demand that tends to happen,” the report added.
Nevertheless, gold fund flows into native ETFs nonetheless stay pretty sturdy, because the World Gold Council (WGC) has reported. Gold ETFs recorded inflows to the tune of Rs 19.8bn in February 2025 that had been above the common internet influx of Rs 14.8bn recorded within the previous 9 months.
