US President Donald Trump’s common concentrating on of India in regards to the commerce deficit and accusations that India unfairly advantages from commerce are incorrect, argued International Commerce Analysis Initiative (GTRI) in a report, explaining threadbare how India fuels US earnings past commerce what it termed it as “hidden surplus”.
President Trump’s commerce deficit narrative is “deceptive and incomplete”, stated commerce assume tank GTRI.
In 2024-25, the US recorded a commerce deficit of about USD 44.4 billion with India, that means it imported much more items and providers from India than it exported. On February 13, 2025, President Trump claimed the US had a USD 100 billion commerce deficit with India, although the precise determine is beneath USD 45 billion.
In response to GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava, “this commerce deficit narrative is deceptive and incomplete” because the US “quietly” rakes in USD 80-85 billion yearly from India by training, digital providers, monetary operations, mental property royalties, and arms gross sales.
“These large earnings do not present up within the slender items commerce statistics. Whenever you issue them in, the US is not operating a deficit with India in any respect — it is sitting on a USD 35-40 billion surplus,” stated Srivastava within the report.
“Removed from being a sufferer within the relationship, the US is a prime beneficiary,” he stated.
For India, he stated, this implies it has each purpose to stroll into free commerce settlement negotiations with confidence, pushing again arduous in opposition to inflated deficit claims and demanding truthful, balanced phrases that replicate the total financial relationship.
“If the US insists on focusing solely on the commerce deficit, then India ought to slender the dialog strictly to tariff cuts — and firmly refuse to entertain talks on authorities procurement, digital commerce, mental property, and the numerous different areas the place U.S. corporations stand to massively develop their earnings inside India.”
GTRI additionally defined in its report how the US “quietly” earns from India:
One of many largest US sources of cash from India is its larger training sector. Indian college students finding out within the US spend over USD 25 billion yearly — about USD 15 billion on tuition and one other USD 10 billion on residing bills.
US tech giants like Google, Meta, Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft usher in one other USD 15-20 billion a 12 months in gross sales from India’s booming digital market. These revenues come from digital adverts, cloud providers, app shops, software program and system gross sales, and streaming subscriptions.
“Most of which move straight again to the US, because of restricted native guidelines on information and taxation,” GTRI argued.
American banks and consulting corporations — together with Citibank, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, McKinsey, BCG, Deloitte, PwC, and KPMG — earn an estimated USD 10-15 billion income yearly from their work in India’s monetary sector, advising corporations, managing company offers, and offering high-end providers, GTRI famous.
One other main supply of US revenue comes from International Functionality Centres (GCCs) run by corporations like Walmart, Dell, IBM, Wells Fargo, Cisco, and Morgan Stanley in Indian tech hubs like Bengaluru and Hyderabad.
“These back-end workplaces deal with international operations in tech, finance, and analytics. Whereas most work is completed in India, a lot of the actual financial worth is booked within the US. GCCs earn USD 15-20 billion income yearly by India operations,” GTRI stated.
The US pharma corporations like Pfizer, Johnson & Johnson, and Merck earn USD 1.5-2 billion yearly by patents, drug licensing, and know-how switch. Auto corporations like Ford, GM, and element suppliers earn USD 0.8-1.2 billion by licensing and technical providers.
Hollywood and US streaming platforms contribute one other USD 1-1.5 billion by Indian field workplace gross sales, subscriptions, and content material licensing.
Lastly, US defence gross sales to India usher in billions extra, though actual figures are sometimes confidential, GTRI stated.
In conclusion, GTRI urged the Modi authorities to face agency even because the US pushes India to make one-sided commerce concessions.
“The information are clear: India isn’t just a passive commerce associate however a significant contributor to American wealth throughout training, know-how, finance, and defence. India can and will negotiate the free commerce settlement from a place of power — rejecting hole deficit arguments and demanding truthful, balanced, and reciprocal phrases,” GTRI concluded.
India and the US are poised to signal the primary tranche of the much-anticipated Bilateral Commerce Settlement (BTA) earlier than July, in accordance with sources who spoke to ANI.
Commerce and Business Minister Piyush Goyal was not too long ago in the US, main negotiations with American officers.
India and the US purpose to greater than double their complete bilateral commerce to USD 500 billion by 2030.
